Survivor Tocantins - 1.5 down, 2.5 to go!

Thursday marked the exit of our first player, Doug. Tyson got blindsided, and thus ended Doug’s potentially epic run for the win. With Moon crippled, that really only leaves me, Bag, and Alia racing to the end. Here’s our standings:

Doug (31 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- [Tyson (24)]
- [Sydney (7)]

Pickett (28 points)
- JT (11)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Bag (27 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (14)

Moon (25 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (6)

Alia (21 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (8)
- Coach (7)

It’s interesting, because for a season that is so unpredictable, people are getting voted out essentially along the same lines as most seasons. Pre-merge, those voted out were fairly poor producers, but after the merge, the strongest, aka those who’ve made the most points, were the first to go. If that continues, then Debra will be the next to be voted out. I think it’s unlikely, but you never know!

Doug is currently in the lead, but without being able to earn any more points, he’ll likely end up in dead last by the end of the season. The only person with the potential to finish lower than him is Moon. And while his one pony Sierra did survive this last episode, I got the impression that absolutely no one likes her, so I think it would be very hard for her to win the whole thing. If people are smart, though, they should try to take her to the jury with them, so she could get 10 or 20 points, as opposed to the 5 a jury member earns.

The other three remaining players all still have 2 ponies in, and all of us have a good chance at going deep. I think that Bag is still in the lead because his two picks are probably the smartest ones left and the most capable of making plays. With Tyson gone, Debra will have to step up and make some decisions, since Coach is convinced he’s a dragon-slaying samurai that lives in the 13th century and is incapable of making plays.

I feel relatively secure at this point since both JT and Taj have access to the hidden immunity idol. JT still has a target on his back, and Taj isn’t doing much of anything right now, but I don’t think either will go out in the next episode.

Alia still has both Erinn and Coach in the game. I actually really like the game that Erinn is playing right now. She’s not in any alliance, but somehow she’s in all the alliances at the same time. It’s a surprisingly secure position to be in. And Coach, well, I think at this point Coach’s stock may actually be on the rise. He’s a loon and his puppet master Tyson was taken out. If Debra doesn't take control of his strings next, he’s just a powerless figurehead that no one will vote for when it gets down to the jury. Every week I hope he gets voted out, but as each week passes, my optimism dwindles a little more.

If you haven’t seen me lately it’s because…

I’ve gotten back into the groove of playing online tourneys lately. It’s something that I’ve been on a long hiatus from until just about a month ago. I’m not sure what made me stop in the first place, but I think it had something to do with a) sucking, and b) the introduction of Mario Kart Wii into my life. The break was much-needed. Now that I’m back, I’m only fiending for more. From two Sundays ago to last Sunday I played tourneys on 5 out of the 8 days. When I’m not playing, I’m thinking about it, and when it’s too late to get tourneys started, I’ve been analyzing past tourneys with Wolf.

I’ve never felt more confident about my play than I do now. I feel more focused, more educated, and straight-up just have more fun with tourneys these days. This time in my poker “career” is only rivaled by the last days of PartyPoker, where I really found my groove in their donkaments. But those tourneys didn’t take as much skill as the ones I’m playing now. I’ve moved up in stakes (slightly) from my usual $10 and $20 tourney’s to the $50 and $75 stakes. We even played the Sunday Million ($215) last weekend, which I had vowed to never play again two years ago because I was too intimidated by the players.

I’m certainly no pro, and in the past two weeks I’ve only made one final table. But I have cashed in 35% of all the tourneys I’ve played, and made the money in 3 out of 5 of the biggest buy-ins. I used to play with my heart and my guts. Now my brain is getting more involved and I feel like I’m finally truly starting to understand the game. Considering that this summer will be the first time I will ever visit Vegas since I’ve turned 21, the timing couldn’t be better.

Survivor Tocantins - Gnight, Moon

Pickett (26 points)
- JT (9)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Moon (25 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (6)

Doug (24 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (17)
- [Sydney (7)]

Bag (20 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (7)

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (6)
- Coach (7)

* I don't have my nerdy spreadsheet with me, but I think this is correct.

The latest episode should really be considered a continuation of the episode from the week before. The same intrigues continued through both. Brendan got slayed by Coach, the now-proven loon. I honestly believe that he spent most of his formative years on one big acid trip, which resulted in the human-like person we are now seeing on TV.

Tyson is proving to be a serious force in this game. He's Coach's puppet master who is winning every immunity along the way. He's set up what looks to be a perfect game at this point. I think he's only rivaled by Stephen, who's playing a more subtle game, but could be the true dragon slayer when he coordinates the Tyson blind-side. JT is playing an honest game, but the fact that everyone loves him and he's competitive, will at some point make people realize he shouldn't be around anymore. If he went to a jury today, I think he would win. But I seriously doubt that Tyson would let him get that far, if he continues to be the one in control. Erin, Debra, Sierra, and Taj may be the most useless women in Survivor history. I am really disappointed in the female performance this season. If any of them win, it will be because the jury was too angry with the man they are up against, not because they actually deserve it.

Looking at our current standings, Doug continues to get the scores he needs. Tyson is leading the active players with most points earned, 17. My only concern is that Tyson is looking TOO good. He needs to tone it down while he's still got a strong alliance, or people will start to notice that he's winning all of the immunities and vote him out. Brendan had already marked him as the biggest threat, and I think that Stephen and JT are concerned as well. (Hopefully they'll actually act on it.)

Moon's recently eliminated Brendan racked up 19 points (5 from making the jury), but is guaranteed to earn no more. Probably the worst part is that he had an immunity idol in his pocket, but didn't play it. I expect that's the part that burns the most, doesn't it Moon? Moon is pretty much dead in the water. His only remaining pick, Sierra, has earned a grand total of 6 points so far. Skeletor Sandy, who was eliminated almost a month ago, earned the same amount. This girl is NOT a producer. Even if Sierra doesn't go out next week, Moon is pretty much drawing dead. His K2o is up against KK.

Bag is still the front-runner for winning the whole thing IMO. Neither of his picks have been mentioned even once as far as getting voted out, and they've done nothing to give people a reason to put them there. Expect him to continue sitting in the 3rd place spot in our rankings, and then make a burst at the end of the season to take the whole thing.

I'm doing okay, but my place is still shaky. JT has a heart-shaped target on his back that I'm worried someone will take aim at. I feel like the biggest confrontation will be Tyson wanting to eliminate him, and JT and Stephen trying to take Tyson out instead. I just hope my team wins the battle!

Alia.... what can I say? She continues to survive and thrive. She's only 7 points off the lead right now and has two active players still capable of bringing in a lot more points. I thought that either Erinn or Coach would for sure be gone by now, so I can't really say with any confidence what will happen to her picks in the future. I still doubt that Alia will win the whole thing, but at this point, I certainly can't guarantee it. Is Alia screwed? Not nearly so much as Moon.

Survivor Tocantins - Dragon Slayer

Sorry for the belated Survivor update. I think it took me so long because the episode was kind of a let-down, so I didn't feel like posting. There was a lot of great drama and build-up right until the end, when Joe got med-evacked and therefore there was no epic upset at tribal council like they were hinting at through the whole episode. Overall I thought it was a solid episode, but the ending was so disappointing that looking back on it I thought it was weak. Hopefully this episode will be a great build-up for an epic show tomorrow, though!

There are many things that I liked about this episode:
1 - neither of my picks got voted out, and even more importantly, one of Bag's picks is gone now without getting a jury seat. My guess is that the next person voted out will be a jury member, so this is a big loss for him.
2 - I thought JT was going to be in really bad shape going into the merge. He's on the short-stacked tribe and is clearly both their leader and a really strong competitor. I don't think he could put a bigger target on his back. But the weird twistedness that is the other tribe instead loves him and they all want to be in an alliance with him. This is an unexpected and very welcome surprise.
3 - Tyson won the only points last episode. Considering that he is Doug's only pick and Doug was in last place, I'm fine with that. If I don't win the points, then I want Doug to.

Here are our current standings:

Pickett (24 points)
- JT (7)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Doug (19 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (12)
- [Sydney (7)]

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (6)
- Coach (7)

Bag (18 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (5)

Moon (18 points)
- Brendan (12)
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (6)

I haven't earned any points in two weeks now, so that fact that I'm still in first is remarkable. Based on the way things developed last episode, I think my team is likely to stick around at least a few weeks more (thank you, survivor gods!). It helps me that they are allies, so if one does well so does the other. If they lose I'll go down hard, but if they keep succeeding I will reap twice as many benefits.

Doug still only has Tyson... his personal sole survivor. Last post I said he needs to win the whole thing and a lot of immunity challenges along the way for Doug to have a chance at winning the pool. Last week, Tyson pulled through. He's in a pretty good alliance, so he'll probably last at the minimum a few more weeks. I'm still calling him a long-shot but if anyone can do it, Tyson can.

Alia's team continues to blow my mind. How Coach and Erinn are both still in- and are winning- I don't know. But Coach is leading the show in his wacko way. He's now calling himself the Dragon Slayer since he is hoping to blindside Brendan. He's also saying things like "the strongest deserve to be here, so we're going to vote out the weak" right as he plans on voting out the strongest person in the tribe. I think Coach may have either done a lot of drugs in his youth or is just straight-up delusional. In either case, I don't like him but I love watching his antics on TV. He may be one of the most entertaining cast members ever and will undoubtedly get invited back to any all-stars seasons in the future if he's not dead or in jail at the time. Coach is a lot like Dreamz (from the season that Earl won). They are both loose cannons, which makes for a really exciting competition.

Bag's team took a big hit with Joe being med-evacked last episode. He was a solid strong player who, had he not gotten injured, would probably have gone pretty far... although I don't think he would have won. Still, Bag has two other great players in Stephen and Debra. I think out of all his players, Joe was the most expendable. Don't expect Stephen or Debra to win many challenges, but you should definitely expect them to go deep in the show. I think at least one if not both of them will finish top 3.

Two weeks ago I said that Brendan was in the most secure position, and I would be shocked if he got voted out. But this season is one of the most unpredictable they've ever had, and sadly for Moon, both of his players were on the chopping block last week. Fortunately for him, they never actually went to tribal council, but he could still be screwed if nothing changes. Previews hinted that Brendan would bust a move in the next episode, but we won't know how successful that turns out to be until tomorrow.

This week it looks like either Brendan or maybe Coach will get voted out - if that happens then either Alia or Moon's dragon really will have been slain. Erinn and Sierra cannot win this survivor pool on their own.

Survivor Tocantins - it's baaaaack!

Survivor aired last night for the first time in three weeks, hurrah! Overall it was an entertaining episode, although points-wise it was disappointing (for me). Here's our current standings:

Pickett (24 points)
- JT (7 points)
- Taj (11 points)
- [Sandy (6 points)]

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6 points)]
- Erinn (6 points)
- Coach (7 points)

Moon (18 points)
- Brendan (12 points)
- [Candace (0 points)]
- Sierra (6 points)

Bag (18 points)
- Stephen (6 points)
- Joe (7 points)
- Debra (5 points)

Doug (14 points)
- [Jerry (0 points)]
- Tyson (7 points)
- [Sydney (7 points)]

Currently the point differential is too close to really matter. The merge will be next week, and that's when the points go up and things start getting really interesting. It's 2 points for winning an individual reward challenge, 1 point for being invited to share the reward, and 5 points if a player wins the individual immunity challenge. Even more importantly, soon the players that are left will become members of the jury, which is worth 10 points each. (By the way, it's interesting to note that while having a player win the game will earn you 50 points, if someone else's players finish 2nd and 3rd, then they've made just as many points. Something I hadn't noticed before!)

What does this mean? It pretty much means Doug is screwed (and Alia still too). He's down to only 1 player, and he's already in last place. For Doug to have a chance at winning, Tyson needs to win the whole thing, and a lot of the challenges along the way too. Alia's players are bringing in solid numbers, but I just don't think they are in the position to make a run for the top 3.

Moon and Bag on the other hand are both looking pretty solid. The merge is coming, but never has it been less apparent who will be the first to get booted. However, none of the players that they have are on my list of who I think are the likeliest candidates. (JT, Tyson, Coach, and Joe are my top contenders right now for "next to go.") Bag and Moon's picks are all in good alliances, or are doing a good job of not putting a big target on their back. Moon though I think is now our new leader because no matter what happens next week I don't think Sierra or Brendan will get voted out. In fact, I'd be shocked if one of them was.

And me? I live in a constant state of fear. It seems that every week one of my picks is in the bottom two for potentially being voted out. Also, the Jalapao tribe did not kick nearly as much ass as I'd hoped. I was hoping to go into the merge with a sizeable lead-- and 5 points is anything but. In fact, the only reason I'm ahead at all is because Taj found the idol. And now the people who she's supposed to be aligned with are talking about voting her out so they can steal it from her! For me to do well, I need the Secret Exile Island Alliance to pull through big time. Moon does too I think. Alia and Doug need for it to fall apart, and Bag I think could do fine either way.

In any case, next week's episode will be very interesting...

It’s the end of an era!

I went to a very interesting lecture a couple of weeks ago that was the keynote speech of a colloquium that was right up my alley. It was called "Apocalypse and Transformation," and was essentially a discussion and analysis of books about the apocalypse. Sadly, the keynote speech was the only event that I was able to make in a week-long colloquium (stupid job), but I am grateful that I at least was able to attend that.

One of the most interesting points that was touched on was a fairly trendy term that’s used today: Anthropocene. This term is used by some scientists to describe the current geological epoch that we are living in. (Officially we’re in the Holocene, but maybe that will “officially” change sometime soon.) Basically the term Anthropocene was coined because human impact is so great that we are changing the face of the earth dramatically. Greenhouse effect and global warming aside, it was also mentioned that our presence is causing mass extinction on our planet on the level of the KT extinction event that wiped out the dinosaurs.

I’d love to go into more detail on this, but honestly most of the info I have is from Wikipedia, so if you’re interested, just click on the links above. The main point I have to make about this—besides blowing your mind— is that the human species has the same effect as a giant meteor crashing into the planet. When it happened 65 million years ago, dinosaurs went extinct and mammals became the new “power” on the planet. When our work as Species Destroyers is done, some scientists predict that we’ll have wiped out 50% of extant species, but I honestly think it’ll be more. I think that we’ll be the last species that we wipe out, since we’ll have changed our planet so dramatically that it will be unsustainable to us. I wonder what the next dominant species will be? Insects? Fish? Something completely new? Hopefully not something as destructive as we are.

I’m not trying to get too deep, since this is only a blog after all, but if you believe in an omnipotent and omniscient higher power, who knows exactly what's going to happen in the future, then what does that mean that they purposefully put our destructive species in this world? I can’t help but think of the line in The Matrix where the AI Agent Smith tells Morpheus that the human race is a virus that kills everyone else. Maybe that’s been our purpose from the start.

I have trouble wrapping my brain around the idea that I was created to be a harbinger of death. Most of the time I tell myself that it’s just my vivid and paranoid imagination running away with me. But every so often, I believe.

Survivor Tocantins

Two weeks ago Sandy was voted out, a sad but inevitable occurrence. She did get me 6 points though before going, which was better than could be expected. Last night Spencer, from Alia's team, was voted out. He'd also accrued 6 points, which ties him w/ Sandy for most points won for people who are no longer in the game. (Jerry and Candace, the other two who got booted, made 0 points each before going.)

Our current standings are:
1. Pickett - 24 points
- JT (7)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

2. Bag - 16 points
- Stephen (6)
- Joe (7)
- Debra (3)

3. Alia - 14 points
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (4)
- Coach (4)

4. Moon - 12 points
- Brendan (9)
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (3)

5. Doug - 11 points
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (4)
- Sydney (7)


At this point it really could be anyone's game. I don't think anyone is completely secure in their position right now; a lot of strong contenders seem to be putting big targets on their backs, and a lot of underachievers and pariahs are somehow sliding under the radar. If I had to pick though I think Bag has a very solid team, followed by Doug. Tom and I are kind of hanging around the middle right now- the next couple of episodes should clarify our fates-- and Alia, after losing her number one pick, is now firmly in last place contention. (If Coach ends up winnning.... well, that's a future I'm not ready to think about yet.)

I think the two players most secure right now are probably Stephen and Joe, which means that Bag, the only person left with all three players in, is my current favorite to win the whole thing. Coach and Tyson also appear to be in very secure spots, but on a tribe that I think in the long run will lose more than they win.

Taj and Brendan, two players who last week seemed safe, are now looking a little shaky. I'm hoping this was just overdramatized for this episode though, because the loss of Taj would hurt a lot. So long as she can make it to the merge, I think she'll be fine, but I'm worried about her lasting that long. If Brendan isn't careful, he'll be gone soon too. His surprisingly canny tribe may vote him out for their own self-preservation. If they do that next, they'll have voted out 3 of their strongest, most competitive tribemates. In the first episode Coach said that he wanted to keep the strong players around, but I think once he realized that he was not a strong player he changed his mind. And Sierra's fate is tied to Brendan's at this point, so if he goes, she'll be gone next.

JT is a great player who works really hard and is the leader of his tribe, but I think that he's setting himself up to be eliminated by proving he's so strong. He'll stick around for a while, but once the merge happens, he'll need to keep a low profile to get very far.

Sydney and Erinn I think are in some danger of getting voted out as throw-aways for either team. They've done nothing wrong, but they haven't really proven themselves yet. Their tribes' success is crucial to them getting to the merge. If they get to the merge, I think they'll both be in great shape.

Debra is actually playing a really good game. She's apparently made a pretty strong alliance with Coach and Tyson, so she probably won't get voted out any time soon since they're running the show (Sierra, Erinn, and now maybe Brendan are all higher on the chopping block right now than she is). She's certainly not a physical threat, and she seems really nice, so even if her alliance gets broken up later in the game, I could see her ingratiating herself with the other team. She could easily make it to the finals if it ends up being a Final 3, just like Suzy did last season. If it's a Final 2, I think it'd be harder for her to get there.

Tocantins is Portuguese for "Alia is screwed"

*SPOILER ALERT*

Bag's DVR "malfunctioned" last night, so Bag, Moon, and I-- being the fanatics we are-- decided to stay up til midnight when the show came On Demand to watch. After a rousing game of Trivial Pursuit and a few drinks, it was time. Overall I found it to be a very interesting and highly entertaining episode. Jerry was unfortunately booted due to sickness, which was a shame, but watching the tribe dynamic while making the decision was fascinating. I think Coach is without a doubt the most useless person on the Timbira tribe. But he does a really great job of acting like he's the most important, and unfortunately the other tribemates at this point are too dumb to see through the act. I don't think his stay in Brazil will last much longer though, since he'll undoubtedly stick his foot in his mouth soon and everyone will finally see through the charade.

I do hope he'll stick around longer though. I think one of the greatest strengths of my team is that none of them are stuck with Coach. So they keep winning. If the tribes get switched up soon though I might be in trouble!

Here are the current standings of the pool:

1. Pickett - 15 points
- JT (5)
- Taj (5)
- Sandy (5)

2. Bag - 9 points
- Stephen (5)
- Joe (5)
Debra (-1)

3. Alia - 5 points
- Spencer (5)
- Erinn (0)
- Coach (0)

3. Doug - 5 points
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (0)
- Sydney (5)

3. Moon - 5 points
- Brendan (5)
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (0)

I personally am happy that Doug's strong team took a hit, although I'm sad about how it happened. I think Jerry had a lot of potential and it's always a bummer when a strong player has to leave because they get sick. He could've been a real producer. But it means that the rest of us have a better chance to win, so that's good! On the plus side, Jerry wasn't in any strong alliance that could have crippled any of Doug's other picks, so I feel like his other 2 team members are still very capable of racking up a lot of points.

Moon was looking to go scoreless again as his team is goose-egging every challenge at this point. But plucky Brendan came through in the end to get him 5 points by finding the hidden immunity idol. This pulled him into a tie for 3rd place. I still think Brendan will go far, but with his other picks failing to produce, I'm just not sure that he will be enough for the Moon win.

Bag and I have similar teams at this point and I think we're both doing very well. From previews for next week it looks like Stephen and Taj will become strong forces in this game soon, which means that JT will probably be brought in as well. I think our fates are in each others' hands at this point.

And Alia... poor, poor Alia. Her team is not only failing to produce big points right now, but they're also trying to cannibalize each other. Erinn just dodged getting voted out this episode by Coach, but I think either she or Coach will be next to go the next time their tribe loses. Spencer has been laying low at this point, but from what I can tell his performances during challenges seem to be only average. If he can get himself into a strong alliance he could go far, but I haven't seen that happen yet, and he could end up being a scapegoat vote-off if he somehow messes up a challenge in the future. I doubt he'll get voted out before Sandy, but once she's gone he could be next.

Survivor Pool Season 18 - Spoilers!

This season we survivor poolists mixed up the rules quite a bit:
- We tried to add a couple of extra players, but after they failed to come to our first 2 Survivor events they were unanimously voted off the tribe.
- We also added a scoring system. So now it's not just whoever picks the winner wins, you have to accumulate the most points by the end of the season to win. The person who picks the winner should still be heavily favored, but it is no longer a guarantee.
- Finally, we made our picks after just one episode, which is the earliest we've ever done the drawing. This means we picked our players based on their own qualities/strengths, and not because of the alliances they were in. Since alliances tend to break down anyways, I think that this made the basis for our picks a lot stronger. (Except for those people who didn't get much air time in the first episode.)

Here's how you can score:

- Survivor winner earns 50 points, and will receive an additional 25 points if they sweep the votes
- 2nd place finisher earns 30 points
- 3rd place earns 20 points
- Everyone who makes the jury earns 10 points
- Your pick is on the tribe that wins a team reward challenge = 1 pt
- Your pick is on the tribe that wins a team immunity challenge = 2 pts
- Your pick wins an individual reward challenge = 2 pts
- Your pick is invited to share in a reward challenge = 1 pt
- Your pick wins individual immunity challenge = 5 pts
- Your pick finds the hidden immunity idol = 5 pts
- Your pick successfully plays their hidden immunity idol at tribal council = 5 pts
- Your pick plays a fake immunity idol = -3 pts
- Your pick sits out a challenge = -1 pt

And here's who everyone picked:
(I've also included the points we've earned after our first episode with the pool)

Alia (2 pts total):
- Spencer (2)
- Erinn (0)
- Coach (0)

Bag (3 pts total):
- Stephen (2)
- Joe (2)
- Debra (-1)

Doug (2 pts total):
- Jerry (0)
- Tyson (0)
- Sydney (2)

Pickett (6 pts total):
- JT (2)
- Taj (2)
- Sandy (2)

Moon (0 pts total):
- Brendan (0)
- Candace (0)
- Sierra (0)


Finally, here's the order of whose picks I think are strongest:

1. Doug - The reigning champ did well for himself in his draws. Overall Doug has very strong players. I think these people will not only get far, but they'll win quite a few challenges, and therefore points, while doing it. They've all shown themselves to be strong in physical competitions, and also smart by laying low around camp. Technically Sydney is Doug's "dreg" (the last-round pick) but there is nothing dreggish about her. The fact that she didn't get much airtime in the first episode allowed her to fly under the radar so Doug could get this gem late in the game.

2. Pickett - JT and Taj are both strong, and I think both of them will get far. Though Taj's value dropped when she revealed that she's married to former NFL star Eddie George. She seems like a canny player, but revealing that she's filthy rich was a bad move and will make it hard for her to win jury votes if she makes it to the finals. Sandy, aka Skeletor, is strong enough and weird enough to last longer in the competition than the first episode indicated, hopefully racking up points along the way. I think she has no chance to win, but she'll be a good dreg for me for the few episodes she'll be in.

3. Moon - At first glance Moon's picks look weak, but upon further analysis I put him in a close third behind myself. In the first episode we watched after the draws ended Cassandra got voted out. Overall she was very smart and strong and I think should have lasted much longer. The importance of Candace going out first cannot be underemphasized, since she now has the potential to win Moon absolutely zero points. Sierra barely survived the vote, which could be huge. It looks like she's about enter an alliance with his third pick, Brendan. And Brendan right now is probably the front-runner to win the whole thing. If Sierra moves quickly to solidify that alliance then she could go far. If that falls through though I think she'll be next to go. Brendan should go far, but if Moon's other two picks give him no points it will be hard for him to win.

4. Bag - Stephen found himself in a good alliance with JT by the end of the 2nd episode, and he seems like a smart guy who will get far. I think Joe will do pretty well too, but that Debra will be a drain. I don't really know a lot about these players now, but I think they have the potential to do alright. I predict that 2 of them will make the jury.

5. Alia - Unfortunately Alia was unable to make her own picks, so Bag did it for her. This team is not as strong as the one I think she would have put together. (She also volunteered to take the dregs, which I think would've ended up being Debra, Sandy, and Coach. It'll be interesting to see at the end of the season if the dreg-team would've done better for her.) Spencer, the youngest Survivor ever, I think was overvalued when he was picked first. I think there are smarter and more athletic people in the game, and I think that Spencer is softer than he initially came across. I'm guessing that the elements will beat him sooner than the politics and he'll end up going out in the middle of the pack. Erinn was a decent pick, but she was closest to Candace, who was voted out last night. Now she is alliance-less and will need to work quickly to get in with the power-players. Coach, or as Alia likes to call him, Cooch, has the kind of personality that will get him voted off fast. He'll go even faster when people realize that he's not even a physical player. Overall I think this guy has absolutely nothing going for him except for the false image of being strong. Once that's seen through he'll be gone.

In the end though, only time will tell. I think this will be a really fun season to watch, if only because of the intensity of the pool!

That's Mister Pickett to you!

My name is confusing, especially through email to strangers. They get an email from "Michal", and if they're not reading closely they tend to assume it says Michael. If they are reading closely, they still may not know whether I am a male or a female since Michal is a pretty unusual name. I understand that. I have mostly come to grips with that. I get emails addressed to Michael and Mr. Pickett all the time and I usually refrain from commenting.

I appreciate the smarter folks who just repeat my name, Michal, as their greeting in the email. That's a good move, and I recommend it to everyone. It's a good play not to assume things, especially when assuming gender because if you're wrong, it's a big misstep. (Same goes for assuming a woman is pregnant.) What I HAVEN'T gotten before, I just got for the first time today: "Hi Mike!" IMO that's taking things at least 3 steps too far. 1. You didn't read my name correctly, 2. You assumed I was a guy, and 3. Even if I had signed my name Michael, why on earth do you think I go by Mike? Shouldn't you have assumed that I prefer to go by the name I gave you, "Michael"?

Bad play my gender-neutral friend. Bad play.

Overhaulin'

So Ben read my book, which I think was really exciting for both of us. The review that he gave it was better than I'd expected, and slightly less than my wildest dreams come true. Most importantly, he gave an honest opinion, for which I can never be grateful enough. The final analysis was that the book was entertaining and enjoyable, and has the potential to be published, but only after a serious overhaul.

Basically, besides a few sticky sections that need to be changed (most of which I already knew, but was just too exhausted to redo) the biggest problem with my book is that it doesn't fit into a specific category, and therefore doesn't appeal to a specific audience. It's funny to think about that sort of thing. When I first got the idea for my story I never really thought about who would read it. I just wanted to get it down on paper. Now that I've written it though, I want people to actually read it, which means making adjustments to appeal to a specific audience.

The book as it is now is lying somewhere between Young Adult and Adult fantasy (but also sort of sci-fi). The characters' ages are pretty much wrong for both categories (main characters should be aged approximately the same as the audience-- it makes the reader more sympathetic), and while I started writing it as a Young Adult book, it quickly turned into something I was writing more for grown-ups. I had to make a decision. If I opted for Young Adult, the changes I'd need to make would be simpler. A few of the more violent/risquee scenes would need to be cut and replaced with something a little more PG-13. But the overall depth and length of the book (already at 321 pages) would pretty much stay the same.

If I chose door #2 and went for Adult fantasy, then the book would need to be expanded, go more in-depth, bring out a lot more details. The characters need to be aged-up, which meant that a lot of the major storyline would need a serious overhaul. The length of the book by the end would probably end up somewhere around the 450 page mark minimum, maybe even more.

I sat at the crossroads for a few days, trying to decide. It felt like Young Adult was kind of like driving through Kansas. It's a straight shot through, maybe a little boring, but you know you'll get there in the end, barring falling asleep at the wheel. Appealing to the Adult audience is more like driving up Pike's Peak. The road is rougher, you have to really focus on what you're doing, and-- considering there's no guard rail-- there's a chance you may not even get to the top. But the ride is a hell of a lot more entertaining, and if you do get to the top, the view makes the whole ordeal well worth it.

In the end I probably didn't need to take that long to decide. I'd known all along I'd go for the adult audience.

The thing is that I already know all the depth and detail that needs to be put in. I've been living every day in this world for over 3 years now. I just never bothered to write the details down. Now I have the opportunity.

I started my re-write/overhaul a couple of days ago, and I've never been more excited to write. With every detail that I add I know that I'm bringing out the world I created for others to share in. And as far as the storyline/character changes... honestly, a lot of the stuff I'm dropping was crap anyways. The way the story is headed now not only makes more sense as far as the story goes, it makes more sense for the characters. I feel like I'm finally cutting through the crap and getting to the core of who these people really are. I know I won't regret this decision. Even if I don't get published, I'll know that at least I did the story justice.

So I guess this post is a little bittersweet- for those of you who thought you'd be getting to read my book sometime soon, unfortunately I'm going to be stringing you along a little more. But when you do get the chance, it'll be a more satisfying experience.

Teh perfect homepage

I use iGoogle as my homepage both at work and at home. There are a ton of features which I love, and after a long search, I think I’ve finally perfected it. I highly recommend creating your own!
The features I have on my iGoogle page are: Gmail and quotes of the day (these are the two features I use/enjoy the most). I also have movie ratings and times, cnn.com headlines, links to dictionary.com and Wikipedia, weather updates, and Google translate which is like Babelfish, only on my homepage.

But the feature which I have been working on for months and finally “perfected” was the theme of my homepage. The theme is the background imagery and the colors of the link on the homepage. I was using their default theme for a while, which basically just changed colors over the course of the day. It was nice but pretty tame. Then I switched to “theme of the day” which would give me a new theme each day. That was cool, but there were too many lame themes that would show up. Things like “Faith Hill theme” which was just different pictures of Faith Hill, or “Gucci theme” which was just pictures of skinny women were of no interest to me. But it opened my eyes at least to the variety of themes available. So I did a search and found “WWF theme” which is brought to us by the world wildlife foundation. Sounds cool, but honestly they really didn’t have a lot of wildlife pictures that I liked. But today I found the “Sierra Club theme.” Brilliant! The pictures are amazing and they switch out for new ones every few hours! I could stare at my home page all day now J.

What homepages do you have and can you beat mine? (I know that cute animals are impossible to beat, but maybe you can at least come close.)

Best sports weekend ever?

This weekend there was the Australian Open final with an epic match of Nadal v. Federer, hands-down the best active men's tennis players. Also showing an excellent Superbowl (my 2nd favorite, I still thought the Giants/Patriots was more exciting), a UFC fight which included a championship match, and a Duke basketball game. Granted it wasn't against a very good team (Virginia) which is why it falls so low on the list.

Excluding the Olympics, I think it's hard to find a more exciting weekend for sports-lovers. Personally I think this weekend was created just for me. The only thing missing was a curling match and darts tourney.

Pickett Recommends...

Deadwood (Insert phallic joke here. That’s what she said.)

We’ve been watching HBO’s Deadwood fairly obsessively for the past few weeks. It’s one of the best TV series I’ve seen in a long time, and one of the most unique as well. It’s got a lot of action and a really interesting plotline set in “the realistic West.” Deadwood’s the kind of show that, even though you can’t smell the people on it, you KNOW that they reek. The streets are full of human and animal waste, and people regularly get dangerously ill from things that we don’t even consider major sicknesses anymore. The show completely de-glorifies the idea of the West and the frontier. And true to form, Deadwood messes with the idea of who is a hero and who is a villain and what traits embody each, something that HBO is famous for.

There are all reasons the show is great. What makes me love it though is its incredibly unique style of dialogue. These characters don’t just fire conversations back and forth at each other. Instead many of the characters tend to have several large soliloquies in each episode where they wax on metaphorically about their circumstances in a way I find reminiscent of Shakespeare. It’s a strange paradox that South Dakota in the 1870s would go so well with a Shakespearean style.
I have to admit that it takes some getting used to. You don’t hear this sort of dialogue anywhere else these days. The first episode I didn’t have a clue as to what was going on because I couldn’t follow what they were saying. But once you get into the rhythm of the show, it’s a joy to watch.

The only downside to this series is that it is only 3 seasons long. Like so many great shows (e.g. Firefly, Rome, Arrested Development) the audiences don’t find out about it until it’s too late. And when you can’t stop watching it three seasons goes pretty fast (we’ve already finished 2).

My favorite characters: Al Swearengen and E.B. Farnum
My favorite trivia: Over the whole series the word F**k and it’s derivatives is said 2,980 times, which means on average they say the F word over 80 times per episode.

The Bad outweighs the Good

Top 11 reasons I hate winter:

1. It’s COLD!
2. It’s dark over half the time
3. When it snows it smells like cow poo in Boulder
4. Driving is more dangerous
5. I eat more and exercise less
6. The wind is unbearable
7. I can’t play any of the outdoor games I like
8. Dressing in layers is a pain in the ass
9. I get sick a lot
10. There are no holidays to look forward to after MLK Jr. Day for almost 4 months
11. Wintry mix- what the hell is that??
    

Top 7 reasons I like winter:

1. Snow is pretty
2. Bowling league
3. Wood fires in our fireplace
4. Snuggling under our big warm comforter
5. Christmas/Hanukkah
6. Australian Open
7. At least I know that spring is coming soon!

2008, a year in review

I just re-read my 2007 year in review blog post to check out how well I did with my resolutions. My '08 resolutions were 1) finish my book, 2) work out, and 3) eat more citrus (this was posted while combating a wicked cold). And I'm happy to say that I did accomplish at least one. My book is done! Hurrah!! Old Glory is currently in the hands of my editor, Mr. Wolf, who will hopefully love it. If he does, then maybe I'll start sending it out to real editors/book companies and then start praying. For those of you who want to read it yourself, too bad! I'm still feeling a little uncomfortable with my fiance reading it, so you'll have to wait until I get a review from him. If he likes it then... maybe.

Through the process I learned a lot about what it means to be a writer. I'm getting into a rhythm, I'm developing self-discipline, and I can tell that every day that I stick with it my writing gets better. Writing is like exercise: it's hard to get started, but once you start doing it regularly, you feel better every day and start craving it. I have several other story ideas that I've been keeping on the back-burner which I hope to get started on in 2009.

I called 2007 a great year because it really helped me to focus and get goals and have motivation. 2008 was probably the perfect year to follow that because I worked hard and actually accomplished several of these goals: I got engaged (not that that was a "goal" necessarily, but it certainly was a very large life event), finished my book, and we got our beloved cat Dexter.

Getting engaged was a bigger turning point in my life than I ever could have imagined. At first it seemed like nothing had changed except that I had a little bling on my hand. But everything changed. Wild dreams and goals like travelling the world and becoming rich and famous have been replaced by simpler dreams. Having a home and a family. Growing old with my husband. I'm actually looking forward to a time when I'll be complaining about my neighbors and my biggest concern will be the weeds in my garden. I never thought that these were the kind of goals that I would feel passionately about. I thought it was something that everyone just did. But these stepstones in my life are things I can't wait to see come true, and I certainly care more about that than being able to say that I've been to 30 different countries or some other pointless boast. The most important thing to me now are that I am happy and the people (and cat) I love are happy too.

With every year that passes I get more and more excited about the years I have in front of me.

So, with that being said, here are my goals for 2009:

1. Get married. The date is set- September 13th, 2009! Now to plan the rest of it... :)
2. Lose weight. I know everyone--including me-- says this every year, but I'm feeling like this year I'll actually do it!
3. Keep working hard on my writing. Finishing my book is no excuse for slacking. If anything I hope to write even more this year.

I want to end this by sharing one of my favorite quotes, brought to you by the great Ursula LeGuin: "It is good to have an end to journey toward, but it is the journey that matter in the end." I gotta say, I'm loving the ride that I'm on right now.

Happy New Year to all, and may 2009 be the best year we've had yet!

Survivor: Gabwned

I went from first place to dead last. But I'm not too sorry. (Except for Charlie, I miss him.) I cheered along with everyone else when Crystal got voted out last night. Good riddance. Of the remaining players, here is my ranking of them:


5. Susie (Alia's) - Really has no chance. I think she'll make the final three, but there's no way she'll convince the jury that she deserves the money.

4. Matty (Bag's) - Matty's done well to survive this long, but I don't think he's playing enough of a strategic game to win him enough votes.

3. Kenny (Moon's) - I think if he made it to the final three he'd have a good chance of winning. But I don't think they'll let him get that far. If he does though, look out!

2. Sugar (Alia's) - Sugar has made the plays to earn her the victory and I think she's a shoe-in to make it to the final 3. Her downsides: she's made a few enemies, and I think that people's perception of her as being unintelligent will hurt her chances. On the plus side, a lot of her strategic moves have happened in front of the jury, which will leave a stronger impression than just hearing about it.

1. Bob (Doug's) - Bob went from verge of being voted out to being a dominant force in this game. His insanely large brain makes up for his mediocre brawn. And those who think he's not playing a strategic game haven't been paying enough attention. He laid low in the beginning, but then when he had to he started winning challenges left and right. Look at how far he's gotten and how many friendly faces are sitting on the jury. His Achilles heel is that everyone knows what a threat he is now, so they may drop him before the finals.

We'll see how it goes! The finale is on Sunday night but we'll be watching it Monday at Pamber's before MNF (hopefully... we haven't actually asked them yet). If you're invested or just plain curious, stop on by!

HBO to Produce Ice and Fire Pilot

It's so weird because I had a feeling that big news was coming from George RR Martin soon. I've been checking his blog every day when I usually only check it once a week. I was hoping that it would be news that the next installation of his series, A Dance with Dragons, was finished and was being sent to the printers, which turned out not to be true. But my instincts were good and I was rewarded for my diligence with the news that I saw today, which is almost as exciting:

HBO has officially picked up the option to turn GRRM's series into a TV series and they just announced that they will be making the pilot! If the pilot looks good then they'll greenlight the show (I think). There've been so many hoops to jump through, so many ifs and buts, but now it looks like it's actually going to happen.

Almost as cool, the producers said that they would take fan suggestions for casting! Obviously the lists that I've made won't fly since most of them are major actors, but it's still cool to feel like we can be a part of it! If you are interested in voicing your opinion, I highly recommend going to this website: http://www.westeros.org/, then go into the Ice and Fire forums, and then Game of Thrones: The Series. Cast a vote, and be a dork like me and start joining the forums too! (This is my secret haunt, which is no longer secret. I am officially giving up the claim to knowing the most about a Song of Ice and Fire amongst my friends.)



Wish I could blog more, but now I'm off on a work field trip!

Survivor: Gabwned

Survivor pool updates - don't read if you're not caught up! (Unless you don't care, in which case read away!)

It looks like we're only a couple of episodes away from a merge, and here's who everyone has left:

Pickett
Charlie
Crystal
Randy

Bag
Matty

Alia
Sugar
Susie

Doug
Bob

Moon
Corinne
Kenny


Unfortunately for both Doug and Bag they are down to 1 pony, neither of whom are in a good position. Up until last week, I'd say that Bag was looking strong, but now he is in a new horse-race: who will be knocked out first. I think that this week's episode will decide that one since right now it looks like both Matty and Bob's heads are on the chopping block. However, while unfortunate, I think Bag's demise was inevitable. The strong leader tends to get knocked out right around merge time when people start to panic about winning individual challenges, and decide to vote out stronger players.

At this point I think Alia is doing as well as expected with her picks. Unfortunately Ace was cannibalized by Alia's own team, so one of her strong picks is gone. However, Sugar's position right now is pretty secure, even though she doesn't really have an alliance, since she has the immunity idol. Her biggest danger right now is of being blindsided, so getting into an alliance is important for her. Susie-- someone Alia didn't even pick, but was instead stuck with-- made a bold play last week that in my opinion significantly improved her position. I still don't think she'll win, but she certainly has a better chance than say, Marcus or GC.

Moon's team is slowly clawing its way up the totem pole. After dumping the dead weight of GC this team has benefited from all of the tribe switches and is emerging as stronger than it originially looked. I think the Marcus vote-off benefited this team the most. It certainly put Kenny in a position of strength, and it gives Corinne a chance to step up and show her merit. At this point I think Alia and Moon are neck and neck for second place.

Obviously having all three of my picks is a huge advantage over the others in this pool. But even better, none of my picks seem to be in immediate danger at this point. Charlie's alliance is shakier than before, however, he benefits in the same ways as Corinne from Marcus' loss. Randy is looking better and better every week. My biggest fear is that he will get too cocky and then his annoying personality will come out. At this point I think he knows he's abrasive and is hiding it pretty well, but if he gets too comfortable and relaxes, he'll put a big target on his back. Crystal at this point is pretty useless, but her position is secure right now, and since she hasn't actually proven that she is a physical threat, she may coast far once they've merged.

Current ranking of the players (this idea is stolen from Moon's NFL blogs):

1. Randy
2. Charlie
3. Sugar
4. Corinne
5. Kenny
6. Crystal
7. Susie
8. Bob
9. Matty

Home is where your rump rests

We just spent most of the week cat-sitting (or cat-neglecting, depending on how you look at it) for Wolf's parents. We moved into their house for the week, brought our cat, clothes, Dr. Mario, Diet Coke. Everything I need. Needless to say, their house is way nicer than our apartment. It has the same basic stuff as we have in the apartment, but it's higher quality, there's more of it, and it's been treated better. But while we were up there I missed our little apartment so much! We got back last night, and I must've spent the first 30 minutes just walking around smiling, and every so often sighing with contentment. Tension I hadn't even realized existed was draining out of my body. I told Wolf, "It's good to be home." And I knew that it wasn't the couch or the teeny kitchen that I missed. It was the feeling of Home.

Home. It's such an indefinable, but special word. A home can be anything from a house to an apartment to a tent or even a cardboard box. I started thinking about what makes our apartment my home. It's certainly not the stuff in it, or the people necessarily, since Dexter and Wolf were both with me at his parent's place. I finally decided that it's the time I spend there with the people/cats I love, and the work that I put into the place as well. Maybe the aparment isn't the cleanest in the world, but when it is clean, it's because I made it that way. And when it's not clean, well, I worked at that too! We picked the color of the walls and the arrangement of our furniture. Everything that's in the apartment is there because we want it there. I feel safe in my home because I know it-- better than any other place. And in some way, I think it knows me too. Certainly the style and messiness-level are a reflection of who I am. It's also full of memories of friends and family coming over and sharing special times.

The first couple of years that we lived in Boulder, I didn't really think of it as my home. I thought of the apartment as a transitional residence, a place to store my crap, and kept waiting for when we'd move on to something bigger and better. As far as Boulder was concerned, I didn't really know it all that well, but by reputation it didn't seem like the place for me. It's a great place to live, but would I ever feel like a part of the community? I didn't know. But lately, I've definitely felt like this is unquestionably my home. And it's nice to know I'm there.