Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Survivor Tocantins - 1.5 down, 2.5 to go!

Thursday marked the exit of our first player, Doug. Tyson got blindsided, and thus ended Doug’s potentially epic run for the win. With Moon crippled, that really only leaves me, Bag, and Alia racing to the end. Here’s our standings:

Doug (31 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- [Tyson (24)]
- [Sydney (7)]

Pickett (28 points)
- JT (11)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Bag (27 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (14)

Moon (25 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]

- Sierra (6)

Alia (21 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (8)
- Coach (7)

It’s interesting, because for a season that is so unpredictable, people are getting voted out essentially along the same lines as most seasons. Pre-merge, those voted out were fairly poor producers, but after the merge, the strongest, aka those who’ve made the most points, were the first to go. If that continues, then Debra will be the next to be voted out. I think it’s unlikely, but you never know!

Doug is currently in the lead, but without being able to earn any more points, he’ll likely end up in dead last by the end of the season. The only person with the potential to finish lower than him is Moon. And while his one pony Sierra did survive this last episode, I got the impression that absolutely no one likes her, so I think it would be very hard for her to win the whole thing. If people are smart, though, they should try to take her to the jury with them, so she could get 10 or 20 points, as opposed to the 5 a jury member earns.

The other three remaining players all still have 2 ponies in, and all of us have a good chance at going deep. I think that Bag is still in the lead because his two picks are probably the smartest ones left and the most capable of making plays. With Tyson gone, Debra will have to step up and make some decisions, since Coach is convinced he’s a dragon-slaying samurai that lives in the 13th century and is incapable of making plays.

I feel relatively secure at this point since both JT and Taj have access to the hidden immunity idol. JT still has a target on his back, and Taj isn’t doing much of anything right now, but I don’t think either will go out in the next episode.

Alia still has both Erinn and Coach in the game. I actually really like the game that Erinn is playing right now. She’s not in any alliance, but somehow she’s in all the alliances at the same time. It’s a surprisingly secure position to be in. And Coach, well, I think at this point Coach’s stock may actually be on the rise. He’s a loon and his puppet master Tyson was taken out. If Debra doesn't take control of his strings next, he’s just a powerless figurehead that no one will vote for when it gets down to the jury. Every week I hope he gets voted out, but as each week passes, my optimism dwindles a little more.

Friday, April 24, 2009

If you haven’t seen me lately it’s because…

I’ve gotten back into the groove of playing online tourneys lately. It’s something that I’ve been on a long hiatus from until just about a month ago. I’m not sure what made me stop in the first place, but I think it had something to do with a) sucking, and b) the introduction of Mario Kart Wii into my life. The break was much-needed. Now that I’m back, I’m only fiending for more. From two Sundays ago to last Sunday I played tourneys on 5 out of the 8 days. When I’m not playing, I’m thinking about it, and when it’s too late to get tourneys started, I’ve been analyzing past tourneys with Wolf.

I’ve never felt more confident about my play than I do now. I feel more focused, more educated, and straight-up just have more fun with tourneys these days. This time in my poker “career” is only rivaled by the last days of PartyPoker, where I really found my groove in their donkaments. But those tourneys didn’t take as much skill as the ones I’m playing now. I’ve moved up in stakes (slightly) from my usual $10 and $20 tourney’s to the $50 and $75 stakes. We even played the Sunday Million ($215) last weekend, which I had vowed to never play again two years ago because I was too intimidated by the players.

I’m certainly no pro, and in the past two weeks I’ve only made one final table. But I have cashed in 35% of all the tourneys I’ve played, and made the money in 3 out of 5 of the biggest buy-ins. I used to play with my heart and my guts. Now my brain is getting more involved and I feel like I’m finally truly starting to understand the game. Considering that this summer will be the first time I will ever visit Vegas since I’ve turned 21, the timing couldn’t be better.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Survivor Tocantins - Gnight, Moon

Pickett (26 points)
- JT (9)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Moon (25 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (6)

Doug (24 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (17)
- [Sydney (7)]

Bag (20 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (7)

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (6)
- Coach (7)

* I don't have my nerdy spreadsheet with me, but I think this is correct.

The latest episode should really be considered a continuation of the episode from the week before. The same intrigues continued through both. Brendan got slayed by Coach, the now-proven loon. I honestly believe that he spent most of his formative years on one big acid trip, which resulted in the human-like person we are now seeing on TV.

Tyson is proving to be a serious force in this game. He's Coach's puppet master who is winning every immunity along the way. He's set up what looks to be a perfect game at this point. I think he's only rivaled by Stephen, who's playing a more subtle game, but could be the true dragon slayer when he coordinates the Tyson blind-side. JT is playing an honest game, but the fact that everyone loves him and he's competitive, will at some point make people realize he shouldn't be around anymore. If he went to a jury today, I think he would win. But I seriously doubt that Tyson would let him get that far, if he continues to be the one in control. Erin, Debra, Sierra, and Taj may be the most useless women in Survivor history. I am really disappointed in the female performance this season. If any of them win, it will be because the jury was too angry with the man they are up against, not because they actually deserve it.

Looking at our current standings, Doug continues to get the scores he needs. Tyson is leading the active players with most points earned, 17. My only concern is that Tyson is looking TOO good. He needs to tone it down while he's still got a strong alliance, or people will start to notice that he's winning all of the immunities and vote him out. Brendan had already marked him as the biggest threat, and I think that Stephen and JT are concerned as well. (Hopefully they'll actually act on it.)

Moon's recently eliminated Brendan racked up 19 points (5 from making the jury), but is guaranteed to earn no more. Probably the worst part is that he had an immunity idol in his pocket, but didn't play it. I expect that's the part that burns the most, doesn't it Moon? Moon is pretty much dead in the water. His only remaining pick, Sierra, has earned a grand total of 6 points so far. Skeletor Sandy, who was eliminated almost a month ago, earned the same amount. This girl is NOT a producer. Even if Sierra doesn't go out next week, Moon is pretty much drawing dead. His K2o is up against KK.

Bag is still the front-runner for winning the whole thing IMO. Neither of his picks have been mentioned even once as far as getting voted out, and they've done nothing to give people a reason to put them there. Expect him to continue sitting in the 3rd place spot in our rankings, and then make a burst at the end of the season to take the whole thing.

I'm doing okay, but my place is still shaky. JT has a heart-shaped target on his back that I'm worried someone will take aim at. I feel like the biggest confrontation will be Tyson wanting to eliminate him, and JT and Stephen trying to take Tyson out instead. I just hope my team wins the battle!

Alia.... what can I say? She continues to survive and thrive. She's only 7 points off the lead right now and has two active players still capable of bringing in a lot more points. I thought that either Erinn or Coach would for sure be gone by now, so I can't really say with any confidence what will happen to her picks in the future. I still doubt that Alia will win the whole thing, but at this point, I certainly can't guarantee it. Is Alia screwed? Not nearly so much as Moon.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Survivor Tocantins - Dragon Slayer

Sorry for the belated Survivor update. I think it took me so long because the episode was kind of a let-down, so I didn't feel like posting. There was a lot of great drama and build-up right until the end, when Joe got med-evacked and therefore there was no epic upset at tribal council like they were hinting at through the whole episode. Overall I thought it was a solid episode, but the ending was so disappointing that looking back on it I thought it was weak. Hopefully this episode will be a great build-up for an epic show tomorrow, though!

There are many things that I liked about this episode:
1 - neither of my picks got voted out, and even more importantly, one of Bag's picks is gone now without getting a jury seat. My guess is that the next person voted out will be a jury member, so this is a big loss for him.
2 - I thought JT was going to be in really bad shape going into the merge. He's on the short-stacked tribe and is clearly both their leader and a really strong competitor. I don't think he could put a bigger target on his back. But the weird twistedness that is the other tribe instead loves him and they all want to be in an alliance with him. This is an unexpected and very welcome surprise.
3 - Tyson won the only points last episode. Considering that he is Doug's only pick and Doug was in last place, I'm fine with that. If I don't win the points, then I want Doug to.

Here are our current standings:

Pickett (24 points)
- JT (7)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Doug (19 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- Tyson (12)
- [Sydney (7)]

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (6)
- Coach (7)

Bag (18 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (5)

Moon (18 points)
- Brendan (12)
- [Candace (0)]
- Sierra (6)

I haven't earned any points in two weeks now, so that fact that I'm still in first is remarkable. Based on the way things developed last episode, I think my team is likely to stick around at least a few weeks more (thank you, survivor gods!). It helps me that they are allies, so if one does well so does the other. If they lose I'll go down hard, but if they keep succeeding I will reap twice as many benefits.

Doug still only has Tyson... his personal sole survivor. Last post I said he needs to win the whole thing and a lot of immunity challenges along the way for Doug to have a chance at winning the pool. Last week, Tyson pulled through. He's in a pretty good alliance, so he'll probably last at the minimum a few more weeks. I'm still calling him a long-shot but if anyone can do it, Tyson can.

Alia's team continues to blow my mind. How Coach and Erinn are both still in- and are winning- I don't know. But Coach is leading the show in his wacko way. He's now calling himself the Dragon Slayer since he is hoping to blindside Brendan. He's also saying things like "the strongest deserve to be here, so we're going to vote out the weak" right as he plans on voting out the strongest person in the tribe. I think Coach may have either done a lot of drugs in his youth or is just straight-up delusional. In either case, I don't like him but I love watching his antics on TV. He may be one of the most entertaining cast members ever and will undoubtedly get invited back to any all-stars seasons in the future if he's not dead or in jail at the time. Coach is a lot like Dreamz (from the season that Earl won). They are both loose cannons, which makes for a really exciting competition.

Bag's team took a big hit with Joe being med-evacked last episode. He was a solid strong player who, had he not gotten injured, would probably have gone pretty far... although I don't think he would have won. Still, Bag has two other great players in Stephen and Debra. I think out of all his players, Joe was the most expendable. Don't expect Stephen or Debra to win many challenges, but you should definitely expect them to go deep in the show. I think at least one if not both of them will finish top 3.

Two weeks ago I said that Brendan was in the most secure position, and I would be shocked if he got voted out. But this season is one of the most unpredictable they've ever had, and sadly for Moon, both of his players were on the chopping block last week. Fortunately for him, they never actually went to tribal council, but he could still be screwed if nothing changes. Previews hinted that Brendan would bust a move in the next episode, but we won't know how successful that turns out to be until tomorrow.

This week it looks like either Brendan or maybe Coach will get voted out - if that happens then either Alia or Moon's dragon really will have been slain. Erinn and Sierra cannot win this survivor pool on their own.

Friday, April 03, 2009

Survivor Tocantins - it's baaaaack!

Survivor aired last night for the first time in three weeks, hurrah! Overall it was an entertaining episode, although points-wise it was disappointing (for me). Here's our current standings:

Pickett (24 points)
- JT (7 points)
- Taj (11 points)
- [Sandy (6 points)]

Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6 points)]
- Erinn (6 points)
- Coach (7 points)

Moon (18 points)
- Brendan (12 points)
- [Candace (0 points)]
- Sierra (6 points)

Bag (18 points)
- Stephen (6 points)
- Joe (7 points)
- Debra (5 points)

Doug (14 points)
- [Jerry (0 points)]
- Tyson (7 points)
- [Sydney (7 points)]

Currently the point differential is too close to really matter. The merge will be next week, and that's when the points go up and things start getting really interesting. It's 2 points for winning an individual reward challenge, 1 point for being invited to share the reward, and 5 points if a player wins the individual immunity challenge. Even more importantly, soon the players that are left will become members of the jury, which is worth 10 points each. (By the way, it's interesting to note that while having a player win the game will earn you 50 points, if someone else's players finish 2nd and 3rd, then they've made just as many points. Something I hadn't noticed before!)

What does this mean? It pretty much means Doug is screwed (and Alia still too). He's down to only 1 player, and he's already in last place. For Doug to have a chance at winning, Tyson needs to win the whole thing, and a lot of the challenges along the way too. Alia's players are bringing in solid numbers, but I just don't think they are in the position to make a run for the top 3.

Moon and Bag on the other hand are both looking pretty solid. The merge is coming, but never has it been less apparent who will be the first to get booted. However, none of the players that they have are on my list of who I think are the likeliest candidates. (JT, Tyson, Coach, and Joe are my top contenders right now for "next to go.") Bag and Moon's picks are all in good alliances, or are doing a good job of not putting a big target on their back. Moon though I think is now our new leader because no matter what happens next week I don't think Sierra or Brendan will get voted out. In fact, I'd be shocked if one of them was.

And me? I live in a constant state of fear. It seems that every week one of my picks is in the bottom two for potentially being voted out. Also, the Jalapao tribe did not kick nearly as much ass as I'd hoped. I was hoping to go into the merge with a sizeable lead-- and 5 points is anything but. In fact, the only reason I'm ahead at all is because Taj found the idol. And now the people who she's supposed to be aligned with are talking about voting her out so they can steal it from her! For me to do well, I need the Secret Exile Island Alliance to pull through big time. Moon does too I think. Alia and Doug need for it to fall apart, and Bag I think could do fine either way.

In any case, next week's episode will be very interesting...