Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Survivor Tocantins - 1.5 down, 2.5 to go!

Thursday marked the exit of our first player, Doug. Tyson got blindsided, and thus ended Doug’s potentially epic run for the win. With Moon crippled, that really only leaves me, Bag, and Alia racing to the end. Here’s our standings:

Doug (31 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- [Tyson (24)]
- [Sydney (7)]

Pickett (28 points)
- JT (11)
- Taj (11)
- [Sandy (6)]

Bag (27 points)
- Stephen (6)
- [Joe (7)]
- Debra (14)

Moon (25 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]

- Sierra (6)

Alia (21 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (8)
- Coach (7)

It’s interesting, because for a season that is so unpredictable, people are getting voted out essentially along the same lines as most seasons. Pre-merge, those voted out were fairly poor producers, but after the merge, the strongest, aka those who’ve made the most points, were the first to go. If that continues, then Debra will be the next to be voted out. I think it’s unlikely, but you never know!

Doug is currently in the lead, but without being able to earn any more points, he’ll likely end up in dead last by the end of the season. The only person with the potential to finish lower than him is Moon. And while his one pony Sierra did survive this last episode, I got the impression that absolutely no one likes her, so I think it would be very hard for her to win the whole thing. If people are smart, though, they should try to take her to the jury with them, so she could get 10 or 20 points, as opposed to the 5 a jury member earns.

The other three remaining players all still have 2 ponies in, and all of us have a good chance at going deep. I think that Bag is still in the lead because his two picks are probably the smartest ones left and the most capable of making plays. With Tyson gone, Debra will have to step up and make some decisions, since Coach is convinced he’s a dragon-slaying samurai that lives in the 13th century and is incapable of making plays.

I feel relatively secure at this point since both JT and Taj have access to the hidden immunity idol. JT still has a target on his back, and Taj isn’t doing much of anything right now, but I don’t think either will go out in the next episode.

Alia still has both Erinn and Coach in the game. I actually really like the game that Erinn is playing right now. She’s not in any alliance, but somehow she’s in all the alliances at the same time. It’s a surprisingly secure position to be in. And Coach, well, I think at this point Coach’s stock may actually be on the rise. He’s a loon and his puppet master Tyson was taken out. If Debra doesn't take control of his strings next, he’s just a powerless figurehead that no one will vote for when it gets down to the jury. Every week I hope he gets voted out, but as each week passes, my optimism dwindles a little more.

1 comment:

GnightMoon said...

Watching that episode was like watching a kid get repeatedly picked on by a bully, then get saved by some other kids who finally stood up to him. But I will miss Tyson's mean-spirited humor - he was one of the intentionally funniest players ever.