Survivor: Gabwned

Survivor pool updates - don't read if you're not caught up! (Unless you don't care, in which case read away!)

It looks like we're only a couple of episodes away from a merge, and here's who everyone has left:

Pickett
Charlie
Crystal
Randy

Bag
Matty

Alia
Sugar
Susie

Doug
Bob

Moon
Corinne
Kenny


Unfortunately for both Doug and Bag they are down to 1 pony, neither of whom are in a good position. Up until last week, I'd say that Bag was looking strong, but now he is in a new horse-race: who will be knocked out first. I think that this week's episode will decide that one since right now it looks like both Matty and Bob's heads are on the chopping block. However, while unfortunate, I think Bag's demise was inevitable. The strong leader tends to get knocked out right around merge time when people start to panic about winning individual challenges, and decide to vote out stronger players.

At this point I think Alia is doing as well as expected with her picks. Unfortunately Ace was cannibalized by Alia's own team, so one of her strong picks is gone. However, Sugar's position right now is pretty secure, even though she doesn't really have an alliance, since she has the immunity idol. Her biggest danger right now is of being blindsided, so getting into an alliance is important for her. Susie-- someone Alia didn't even pick, but was instead stuck with-- made a bold play last week that in my opinion significantly improved her position. I still don't think she'll win, but she certainly has a better chance than say, Marcus or GC.

Moon's team is slowly clawing its way up the totem pole. After dumping the dead weight of GC this team has benefited from all of the tribe switches and is emerging as stronger than it originially looked. I think the Marcus vote-off benefited this team the most. It certainly put Kenny in a position of strength, and it gives Corinne a chance to step up and show her merit. At this point I think Alia and Moon are neck and neck for second place.

Obviously having all three of my picks is a huge advantage over the others in this pool. But even better, none of my picks seem to be in immediate danger at this point. Charlie's alliance is shakier than before, however, he benefits in the same ways as Corinne from Marcus' loss. Randy is looking better and better every week. My biggest fear is that he will get too cocky and then his annoying personality will come out. At this point I think he knows he's abrasive and is hiding it pretty well, but if he gets too comfortable and relaxes, he'll put a big target on his back. Crystal at this point is pretty useless, but her position is secure right now, and since she hasn't actually proven that she is a physical threat, she may coast far once they've merged.

Current ranking of the players (this idea is stolen from Moon's NFL blogs):

1. Randy
2. Charlie
3. Sugar
4. Corinne
5. Kenny
6. Crystal
7. Susie
8. Bob
9. Matty