Survivor Pool Season 18 - Spoilers!

This season we survivor poolists mixed up the rules quite a bit:
- We tried to add a couple of extra players, but after they failed to come to our first 2 Survivor events they were unanimously voted off the tribe.
- We also added a scoring system. So now it's not just whoever picks the winner wins, you have to accumulate the most points by the end of the season to win. The person who picks the winner should still be heavily favored, but it is no longer a guarantee.
- Finally, we made our picks after just one episode, which is the earliest we've ever done the drawing. This means we picked our players based on their own qualities/strengths, and not because of the alliances they were in. Since alliances tend to break down anyways, I think that this made the basis for our picks a lot stronger. (Except for those people who didn't get much air time in the first episode.)

Here's how you can score:

- Survivor winner earns 50 points, and will receive an additional 25 points if they sweep the votes
- 2nd place finisher earns 30 points
- 3rd place earns 20 points
- Everyone who makes the jury earns 10 points
- Your pick is on the tribe that wins a team reward challenge = 1 pt
- Your pick is on the tribe that wins a team immunity challenge = 2 pts
- Your pick wins an individual reward challenge = 2 pts
- Your pick is invited to share in a reward challenge = 1 pt
- Your pick wins individual immunity challenge = 5 pts
- Your pick finds the hidden immunity idol = 5 pts
- Your pick successfully plays their hidden immunity idol at tribal council = 5 pts
- Your pick plays a fake immunity idol = -3 pts
- Your pick sits out a challenge = -1 pt

And here's who everyone picked:
(I've also included the points we've earned after our first episode with the pool)

Alia (2 pts total):
- Spencer (2)
- Erinn (0)
- Coach (0)

Bag (3 pts total):
- Stephen (2)
- Joe (2)
- Debra (-1)

Doug (2 pts total):
- Jerry (0)
- Tyson (0)
- Sydney (2)

Pickett (6 pts total):
- JT (2)
- Taj (2)
- Sandy (2)

Moon (0 pts total):
- Brendan (0)
- Candace (0)
- Sierra (0)


Finally, here's the order of whose picks I think are strongest:

1. Doug - The reigning champ did well for himself in his draws. Overall Doug has very strong players. I think these people will not only get far, but they'll win quite a few challenges, and therefore points, while doing it. They've all shown themselves to be strong in physical competitions, and also smart by laying low around camp. Technically Sydney is Doug's "dreg" (the last-round pick) but there is nothing dreggish about her. The fact that she didn't get much airtime in the first episode allowed her to fly under the radar so Doug could get this gem late in the game.

2. Pickett - JT and Taj are both strong, and I think both of them will get far. Though Taj's value dropped when she revealed that she's married to former NFL star Eddie George. She seems like a canny player, but revealing that she's filthy rich was a bad move and will make it hard for her to win jury votes if she makes it to the finals. Sandy, aka Skeletor, is strong enough and weird enough to last longer in the competition than the first episode indicated, hopefully racking up points along the way. I think she has no chance to win, but she'll be a good dreg for me for the few episodes she'll be in.

3. Moon - At first glance Moon's picks look weak, but upon further analysis I put him in a close third behind myself. In the first episode we watched after the draws ended Cassandra got voted out. Overall she was very smart and strong and I think should have lasted much longer. The importance of Candace going out first cannot be underemphasized, since she now has the potential to win Moon absolutely zero points. Sierra barely survived the vote, which could be huge. It looks like she's about enter an alliance with his third pick, Brendan. And Brendan right now is probably the front-runner to win the whole thing. If Sierra moves quickly to solidify that alliance then she could go far. If that falls through though I think she'll be next to go. Brendan should go far, but if Moon's other two picks give him no points it will be hard for him to win.

4. Bag - Stephen found himself in a good alliance with JT by the end of the 2nd episode, and he seems like a smart guy who will get far. I think Joe will do pretty well too, but that Debra will be a drain. I don't really know a lot about these players now, but I think they have the potential to do alright. I predict that 2 of them will make the jury.

5. Alia - Unfortunately Alia was unable to make her own picks, so Bag did it for her. This team is not as strong as the one I think she would have put together. (She also volunteered to take the dregs, which I think would've ended up being Debra, Sandy, and Coach. It'll be interesting to see at the end of the season if the dreg-team would've done better for her.) Spencer, the youngest Survivor ever, I think was overvalued when he was picked first. I think there are smarter and more athletic people in the game, and I think that Spencer is softer than he initially came across. I'm guessing that the elements will beat him sooner than the politics and he'll end up going out in the middle of the pack. Erinn was a decent pick, but she was closest to Candace, who was voted out last night. Now she is alliance-less and will need to work quickly to get in with the power-players. Coach, or as Alia likes to call him, Cooch, has the kind of personality that will get him voted off fast. He'll go even faster when people realize that he's not even a physical player. Overall I think this guy has absolutely nothing going for him except for the false image of being strong. Once that's seen through he'll be gone.

In the end though, only time will tell. I think this will be a really fun season to watch, if only because of the intensity of the pool!