Survivor aired last night for the first time in three weeks, hurrah! Overall it was an entertaining episode, although points-wise it was disappointing (for me). Here's our current standings:
Pickett (24 points)
- JT (7 points)
- Taj (11 points)
- [Sandy (6 points)]
Alia (19 points)
- [Spencer (6 points)]
- Erinn (6 points)
- Coach (7 points)
Moon (18 points)
- Brendan (12 points)
- [Candace (0 points)]
- Sierra (6 points)
Bag (18 points)
- Stephen (6 points)
- Joe (7 points)
- Debra (5 points)
Doug (14 points)
- [Jerry (0 points)]
- Tyson (7 points)
- [Sydney (7 points)]
Currently the point differential is too close to really matter. The merge will be next week, and that's when the points go up and things start getting really interesting. It's 2 points for winning an individual reward challenge, 1 point for being invited to share the reward, and 5 points if a player wins the individual immunity challenge. Even more importantly, soon the players that are left will become members of the jury, which is worth 10 points each. (By the way, it's interesting to note that while having a player win the game will earn you 50 points, if someone else's players finish 2nd and 3rd, then they've made just as many points. Something I hadn't noticed before!)
What does this mean? It pretty much means Doug is screwed (and Alia still too). He's down to only 1 player, and he's already in last place. For Doug to have a chance at winning, Tyson needs to win the whole thing, and a lot of the challenges along the way too. Alia's players are bringing in solid numbers, but I just don't think they are in the position to make a run for the top 3.
Moon and Bag on the other hand are both looking pretty solid. The merge is coming, but never has it been less apparent who will be the first to get booted. However, none of the players that they have are on my list of who I think are the likeliest candidates. (JT, Tyson, Coach, and Joe are my top contenders right now for "next to go.") Bag and Moon's picks are all in good alliances, or are doing a good job of not putting a big target on their back. Moon though I think is now our new leader because no matter what happens next week I don't think Sierra or Brendan will get voted out. In fact, I'd be shocked if one of them was.
And me? I live in a constant state of fear. It seems that every week one of my picks is in the bottom two for potentially being voted out. Also, the Jalapao tribe did not kick nearly as much ass as I'd hoped. I was hoping to go into the merge with a sizeable lead-- and 5 points is anything but. In fact, the only reason I'm ahead at all is because Taj found the idol. And now the people who she's supposed to be aligned with are talking about voting her out so they can steal it from her! For me to do well, I need the Secret Exile Island Alliance to pull through big time. Moon does too I think. Alia and Doug need for it to fall apart, and Bag I think could do fine either way.
In any case, next week's episode will be very interesting...
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3 comments:
Winning the whole thing was my plan from the beginning. Watch out for Tyson to win a few rewards/immunities and then add 50 on top.
I think the best way to analyze it at this point is to decide who has the best shot at 1/2/3. I think you're fine cause JT & Taj are potential champs whereas I might be hurting a bit cause I dunno if Brendan or Sierra could win it all. Bag is in ok shape with Stephen (my overall #1 candidate) and Debra could easily get top 3. Doug has one good pony and Alia is screwed.
I agree that 1/2/3 are important, but don't discount having sheer numbers. Even if only one of bag's picks makes the top 3, if the other two make the jury, he'll still be in great shape.
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