Survivor 20: Episode 8

Last night marked one of the biggest turnarounds in Survivor Pool history - and not a good one. From having a commanding, dominating lead to being the first ones completely out of the competition, I say to you Dachui: bad beat. Three weeks in a row, Dachui lost their #1, #2, and #3 picks respectively. Really, if the Heroes weren't so stupid, Coach should still be in this game. His lack of breasts is what got him knocked out of the competition when the Heroes let it be known that they thought the Villains tribe had an all-female alliance going. It's dumb enough to assume something based on little evidence, it's even DUMBER to say it out loud so that the other tribe knows exactly how to get the best of you in the future.

What I like about this new Villains tribe is that they all know exactly where they stand. They're a canny group. I especially like the subtlety of their social game - they're thinking through every scenario. First of all, Sandra knows that Russell will go for anyone going for him, so instead of trying to go for him directly, she starts spreading rumors that manipulate him into taking out members of his own alliance. Secondly, I think that if the Heroes had heard the Villains incorrectly assume something about their tribe, I don't think they would've considered doing anything to perpetuate that false assumption. They probably would've laughed about it, but they never would have seen it as an opportunity to use to their advantage.

What I don't understand is how the votes fell. Coach, Jerri, and RUSSELL voted for Courtney. Sandra, Courtney, Danielle, and Parvati voted for Coach. Why did Russell switch his vote? Pre-voting he wanted Coach gone and Danielle wanted Courtney gone... and yet they each voted opposite of their wishes. We were trying to figure out if Russell was trying to protect himself from some kind of blind side, but splitting his vote only made Russell more vulnerable, not less. Did Parv and Danielle vote against his wishes? If so it means that Danielle has a closer alliance to Parv than Evil Russ... and he'll probably start getting paranoid about that. If anyone else can explain, I'd love to hear your theories!

The other "shocker" of the evening was how large the jury will end up being. With Coach making the jury, it looks like there will be a final 3 facing a jury of 9. I think we all hate the final 3 format, but it's nice that there will be so many jury members.

Also of note was Jeff's constant mentionings of "if" there is a merge. I'm 80% sure there will be a merge, but man I'd love it if there wasn't. It would be such a great ploy by those sly producers to have each tribe plan on - nay, count on - an impending merge that never happens. If the Villains knew that there wouldn't be a merge, I think Coach and Tyson would still be in the game, maybe even Boston Rob. But now they could be utterly screwed because of another assumption.


Current Standings:

"Beauty & 2 Beasts" Doug/Bri: 78 points
1. JT (27 pts)
[2. Tom (27 pts)]
3. Parvati (24 pts)

"Douchey" Dachui: 74 points
[1. Tyson (18 pts)]
[2. Boston Rob (26 pts)]
[3. Coach (30 pts)]

"New Rookie" Courtney: 40 points
1. Evil Russell (28 pts)
[2. Stephenie (2 pts)]
3. Sandra (10 pts)

"Always the Bridesmaid, never the bride" Me: 40 points
1. Colby (15 pts)
2. Amanda (17 pts)
3. Courtney (8 pts)

"Gorbag" Bag: 37 points
1. Rupert (15 pts)
[2. Randy (6 pts)]
3. Jerri (16 pts)

"Moonwalkers" Moon: 23 points
[1. James (7 pts)]
[2. Cirie (7 pts)]
3. Danielle (14 pts)
4. Candice (-5 pts)


Rankings:

1. B2B - Doug & Bri have almost a 40 point lead over the next closest contenders, which means they will be very hard to catch. Although JT is making himself way too conspicuous right now, which could put him in very serious jeopardy. The rest of us need for him to go if we are going to have a chance to catch this juggernaut. I'm putting Parvati as the favorite to win it all right now, but she probably won't be winning a lot of challenges on her own or with her current tribe, so I'm much more comfortable with her going deep than JT.

2. New Rook - Obviously Russell is a threat and very capable of making it to the final 3, but I'm kind of hoping he gets voted out soon. I think it would be VERY entertaining to watch him steaming over on the jury week after week. Plus, his rant at final tribal would be epic, probably topping Sue's Rat & Snake speech. Sandra is down but never out - she's super canny, and if a merge comes soon she could be a very dangerous swing vote. If they merge next week I hope the first thing that happens is Sandra and Courtney switch to the Hero alliance, wake those dumbasses up, and give them a much-needed intelligence boost.

3. Bridesmaids - Geez, I don't even know what to say. Courtney survived by the seat of her tiny little pants. I've been saying from the start that she's a threat so long as she makes it to a merge, and it looks like that may not happen. Please merge soon! Let me keep all 3 of my players! They're finally starting to earn points! If the Villains lose again I just don't see Sandra being able to save her one more time.

4. Moonwalkers - Considering how close we turned out to be to the jury, it would've been foolish NOT to have bought Candice. Even without her other point-accumulations, Candice is now guaranteed to pay up her debts and then some! She's also doing a good job of forming tighter alliances and creating a healthy amount of paranoia among the Heroes. Danielle needs to stop pissing Russell off - if she can keep her opinions to herself she may actually make it to the final 3, although I don't think she'll win. Moonwalkers I see making a strong run in the second half of this season, but I just don't think Moon can overcome his enormous point deficit to come back and win this one.

5. Gorbag - I think Gorbag has the two nuttiest players on his tribe. Jerri is confident one minute, confused the next, and straight up pissed off and hungry most of the time. She's not doing a good job controlling her emotions, and that will be the end of her. Rupert hasn't really shown himself to be a great thinker - he's made his alliance with JT and it seems like that's about when he stopped playing the social game. I love his effort in the challenges, but he's practically non-existent in camp!

6. Dachui - RIP. Team Dachui is incapable of winning, but they still have a chance to not lose!