Survivor 20: The Draft

(First of all, yes, I geek out way too much about Survivor. Secondly, yes, I drank WAY too much last Thursday. So I want to apologize to everyone who tried to watch the season premiere with me last night and instead had to listen to me shout enthusiastically through the entire episode. But I don't think less booze is going to change the amount that I talk through the show... just the volume at which I do so. So if you actually want to hear the conversations of the competitors, it's probably best to not watch with me in the future.)

Going into this season I had outrageously high expectations for how awesome it was going to be. I tried to talk myself down, so that I wouldn't be disappointed when the show actually started. Inevitably, I decided, there was no way the show could meet my impossible standard. This turned out to be true. The first episode was even more amazing than I could have possibly imagined. I mean, does it get any better than that in their very first challenge there were 2 relatively serious injuries to people so tough that they refused to leave the game? How this will affect them long-term, I don't know. We'll have to wait and see (although I'm concerned that Rupert will be encumbered by his broken toe). It's a good indication of how much these players want to win this year that they both stuck around. I was disappointed in the first all-stars season because so many players voluntarily bowed out of the game. They didn't have the fire anymore. Not so this season.

Sugar was the first casualty of the game, and one of only two players that weren't picked in our pool. So no one has actually lost a player yet. More than anything, this makes me proud of our pool - it shows how well we know the game. Sugar was not a contributor at either challenge or around camp (that I could tell), so her leaving really doesn't take anything away from the season. According to New Rookie Courtney, Sugar and JT were/are in a relationship, but I think this could not have been true at the time of filming since she spent much of the first episode chasing Colby around camp. Maybe they broke up before the show? Or maybe they got together afterwards? I'm not interested enough in her to look into this more. So long, Sugar, we won't miss you.

I think Sugar was some of the only dead weight on the show though, so from now on there's going to be high drama and suspense. I am fired up about this season - these vets are playing on a much higher level than the average season allows. For example, Russell started this season the same way he did last season: he singled out some of the ladies on his team and tried to get them into secret alliances with him. One person bought it, but one didn't, the defending champ Parvati. She found it highly suspicious, but she didn't say anything or act on it. She said she trusted him, and now knows to keep an eye on him, as he is a big threat. This is so much better than what the women did last season. They either bought what he was selling them, or called him out on his BS, thus singling themselves out for elimination. I think they're all advanced thinkers and schemers, and I look forward to many Edgardo-type episodes this season!

Random thought - I went back to the Survivor 19 draft post I wrote to see what I'd included. I noticed that I had 77 comments, 74 of which were Japanese spam (which Google Translate courteously offered to translate into English for me). I wonder what attracted the spammers so much to that particular post? Is Japan as obsessed with Survivor as I am? Can this draft blog set a new record for spam comments?

RULES:

1st place: 45 points (+15 for sweep)
2nd place: 30 points
3rd place: 20 points (+10 if makes jury)
Jury: 10 points

Wins a team reward challenge: 2 points
Wins a team immunity challenge: 3 points
Wins an individual reward challenge: 4 points
Invited to share a reward challenge: 1 points
Wins individual immunity challenge: 6 points
Finds the hidden immunity idol: 10 points
Plays hidden immunity idol at tribal council (success v. fail): 10/-5 points
Plays a fake immunity idol: -10 points
Sits out a challenge: -2 points
buy bad item at auction/don't buy an item at auction: -2 points
buy good item at auction: 2 points
buy a dreg: -15 points

Everything is pretty much the same this season; we only added a couple new rules. First, there are now small point rewards for buying a good item at Auction (if they have an auction this season), and small point penalties for buying a bad item, or not buying anything at all.

More interestingly though, there is now a rule that if one of your players gets voted out, you have the option to buy a player who wasn't picked in the draft (in this case, Candice) for 15 points. Players don't have to already have the points to buy her, they can go into point debt. After the episode in which their pony gets voted out, players have up until the next episode to buy the player. The dreg would not bring in any points with them. So for instance, even though Candice won 2 points last episode, if someone had lost a player this last episode and chose to buy her, she'd start out at zero. If the player who lost their pony doesn't buy the dreg before the next episode, they forfeit the opportunity to buy her later. Which means that the next week if someone lost their player, they would be the only ones with the opportunity to buy her.

PICKS/CURRENT STANDINGS:

"Douchey" Dachui: 9 points

1. Tyson (3 pts)

2. Boston Rob (3 pts)

3. Coach (3 pts)

"Gorbag" Bag: 8 points

1. Rupert (2 pts)

2. Randy (3 pts)

3. Jerri (3 pts)

"Beauty & 2 Beasts" Doug/Bri: 7 points

1. JT (2 pts)

2. Tom (2 pts)

3. Parvati (3 pts)

"All Blacks" Moon: 7 points

1. James (2 pts)

2. Cirie (2 pts)

3. Danielle (3 pts)

"Always the Bridesmaid, never the bride" Me: 7 points

1. Colby (2 pts)
2. Amanda (2 pts)
3. Courtney (3 pts)

"New Rookie" Courtney: 8 points
1. Evil Russell (3 pts)
2. Stephenie (2 pts)
3. Sandra (3 pts)

ANALYSIS (in order of strength of teams):

There is really very little difference between the strength of any of our teams, at least at this point in the game. The difference between the person I rank first v. last is negligible. All of our teams are really strong. But I'm going to rank us all the same.

1. Beauty & 2 Beasts: I made a conscious decision not to pick any past winners because I thought they'd be easy targets for the rest to eliminate. Doug and Bri had no such qualms. They picked all past winners, and since my hunch appears to be way off, I think that their team is the biggest favorite to win this season. JT, Tom, and Parvati are all the complete package. They play physically, mentally, and the all look good while doing it. I still think there's a danger of them not winning because of their past success, but it doesn't seem to be nearly as big a deal as it has been in past seasons.

2. All Blacks: Moon's team basically has all the players I wish I'd picked. I thought I could get Cirie later in the draft... looking back on it now I have no idea why. James is returning for the third time much wiser and equally as ripped. I expect James to go far this season. Danielle, I have no idea about, but it looks like she put herself in a position to pull a Natalie on Evil Russell, which would be HILARIOUS if it happened two seasons in a row.

3. New Rookie: Courtney went after players that a lot of us overlooked. Evil Russell was not at the top of many peoples' lists, and when Stephenie was picked in the 2nd round most of us scoffed. But they both did better than many other players in the first episode. And I'm particularly excited with Courtney's Sandra pick. It's my opinion that the women this season are going to crush*, and Sandra is definitely a threat when it comes to strategy.

4. The Bridesmaids: I'll be honest. I'm not loving my team that much. I was going to place myself last, but because of perceived injuries I put a couple of other teams lower. All of my players have finished 2nd in previous seasons, so I know that they have what it takes to succeed (if not close the deal). But I found Colby's physical and strategic games both lacking in the first episode, and I'm really concerned that Amanda's name came up in the very first episode as well. I'm most pleased with my Courtney pick - she's not a nice person, but she is super crafty!

5. Douches: I'm pre-emptively ranking the Douches 5th because of the preview for next week. It looks like Boston Rob may get medically evacuated, a devastating blow to the Douches. If Boston Rob sticks around though, I think Dachui is more of a top 3 team, since Rob is such a great player. I think Tyson is a fly-under-the-radar threat: he doesn't have a big reputation and he's one of the smarter players in the season. He could easily go far. And somehow Coach managed to stick around forever in his last season, so I see no reason why this couldn't happen again.

6. Gorbag: I'm placing Bag last because of Rupert's toe injury. While Rupert is a strong player, I have a feeling this will seriously affect him in challenges, and that his team will end up voting him off because of it. And if Rupert is gone that leave Jerri and Randy - two people who need to work hard to hide some unappetizing personality traits. They may not be as glaring amongst a group of villains, but I have a feeling that people aren't going to like Randy (again).

* The past two seasons have resulted in female victories, both largely the result of the men in the seasons being played like fiddles. These women are not like Natalie from last season. They are the praying mantises and black widows of the Survivor animal kingdom. They are extremely skilled at luring men into their traps and then blindsiding them when no one is watching. I think this is the smartest group of men they've ever had before too, though, so we'll see how this theory plays out.