Survivor Tocantins

Bag (39 points)
- Stephen (13)
- [Joe (7)]
- [Debra (19)]

Doug (31 points)
- [Jerry (0)]
- [Tyson (24)]
- [Sydney (7)]

Pickett (30 points)
- JT (12)
- Taj (12)
- [Sandy (6)]

Moon (30 points)
- [Brendan (19)]
- [Candace (0)]
- [Sierra (11)]

Alia (26 points)
- [Spencer (6)]
- Erinn (8)
- Coach (12)

♪ Ding dong, Debbie’s gone!♪ Not that she was a witch or anything, but I believe she was the only one smart enough to coordinate a blind-side of JT (besides Stephen, but I don’t think he’ll do that). Getting rid of her greatly increases my chances of winning this season. With Debbie’s exit though, I must finally concede defeat. Debbie > Sandy. They were the last two picks and Bag took Debbie to leave me with the dreg Sandy. I was happy with that though because I was convinced that while Debbie would remain in the game longer, she wouldn’t earn very many points along the way. She turned out to be a much smarter and better competitor than I’d anticipated, so congrats to you Debbie for earning three times as many points as the other old white lady in the game! Sandy, you were exactly what I thought you’d be—totally nuts, but great for a handful of much-needed points.

Bag had a bittersweet week last week. He earned 10 big points while no one else got anything, but he lost a player. I’d say that losing Debbie wasn’t that great of a loss, but she brought in more points than Stephen so far (not even counting the 5 points she earned for making the jury). Stephen has always been a long-term threat, but I think Bag needed his “producer” in the game to ensure the win. Now I feel like the field is wide open. And by wide open I mean that it’s really come down to me and Bag, while Alia continues her insane claw to victory.

Quick note, in my first post I noted that Alia actually said she wanted the dregs since she hadn’t had time to watch the show yet. Instead, an ever-so-slightly-more-informed Bag picked for her. (Which means that 50% of all of Bag’s picks are still in the game. Impressive.) I predicted that—had Alia gotten what she wanted—she would have gotten Debra, Sandy, and Coach. Which would have given her 37 points with one player left right now. She’d probably be in the lead.

For me to win I need JT to start pulling his weight again and win some immunities. It would also be extremely helpful if either Taj or JT played the hidden immunity idol and Stephen did not. I think it could happen that they think of this (I think that the last week to use it will be this week) and play it “just in case”. If it’s played it’s possibly a 10 point swing between me and Bag. I also need the current alliances to hold as they are.

For Bag to win, Stephen needs to win the whole thing. Nuff said.

For Alia to win, the rest of the tribe except Coach needs to come down with a brutal case of giardia so they are all med-evacked, thus handing Coach the victory. At this point in the game, even if he or Erinn makes it to the final 2 (or 3) I just don’t see anyone voting for them, not even people from their own alliances. If Coach was in the final 2, maybe Debbie and Tyson would vote for him, but they both know that he was the pawn not the player, and I think they’d prefer to reward the person who outfoxed them, not their lackey. If it was Erinn, well, most people don’t think she’s all the smart, I don’t think. She’s always a name away from being the next to go. So what Alia really needs is for both Erinn and Coach to make it to the final 2, because then people would have no choice BUT to vote for her players.

I want to conclude this post with my favorite part of the episode, which is that Coach brought his assistant coach on the show as his “special someone.” Everyone else brought their husbands, fathers, siblings, but Coach chose his co-worker. And not just his co-worker, his professional subordinate. I think this guy lives to be on one long power trip. It’s also sad that there’s no one in his life who he’s really close to. I think that Coach is what Randy from the last season would have been if he was stupid. They are both awkward loners who don’t fit in with society. Randy knew that, but Coach is too ignorant to realize it.