Survivor - Heroes v. Villains

So I've done some research on the upcoming season. A couple of things to know:

1. It will debut Feb 11 (not after Superbowl). It's in Samoa again, which is awesome because I won 2 cases of Twisted Tea betting on that.

2. Richard Hatch was asked to be on the show, but wasn't able to because he's under house arrest. I thought house arrest was something that only happened to high schoolers and geriatrics, but I guess not.

3. There won't be an exile island apparently. I can't decide if I'm happy about that or not.

4. They changed the tagline from "Outwit, Outlast, Outplay" to "Return, Revenge, Redemption." It might be a little cheesy, but it gets me even more excied all the same.

5. If you want to know who will be on this season, scroll down to the previously-posted blog (which hopefully hid it from your screen if you didn't want to know. I don't want to spoil it for anyone who'd rather have it be a surprise.) --> UPDATE: CBS verified the cast, hurrah! Check it out here: http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/


My early thoughts on Heroes v. Villains: I am ridiculously excited. I was really excited for the first all-stars, and ended up disappointed. I was unenthused for the second all-stars (fans v. faves) but found myself pleasantly surprised. I am worried that my excitement for this one will also end in disappointment, but I hope not!

More than that though, I love the concept of heroes v. villains. (If only life were so cut and dry that we could categorize people that way in everyday situations.) I think that giving each tribe an "identity" will create a really interesting dynamic. I think I will cheer for the people on this show the same way I cheer for characters in Con Air. I do want to good guys to win in the end, but the bad guys are so hilariously awesome that I can't help but cheer for them the whole way. (Kind of like Evil Russell I guess.)

I hope the Heroes do a better job in challenges than the similarly-themed heroes did on the Real World Road Rules challenge. Nothing's more embarrassing than having your heroes get thwomped over and over and over again.

I wonder if the Heroes will try and vote democratically or something else stupid so that they can appear to live up to their name. Will the Villains blindside everyone, just to prove how devious they are?

I guess we'll find all this out starting February 11th. I know I can't wait! And for those of you who also can't wait, check my previous blog post for the speculated cast, as well as my comments on them.

Survivor Heroes v. Villains - The Cast

I'm really excited about this cast because it appears to pit a lot of nemeses against each other. What better example than Randy v. Sugar from the season Bob won? So it won't just be two tribes against each other, there will be a LOT of bad blood in the water to boot... grudge v. grudge.

So, without further ado, here' s the list of cast members slated for season 20's all-stars.

Heroes:

- Amanda "The Beast" Kimmel - Obviously deserves to be here. She rules all. But I do wonder if she'll end up coming in 2nd AGAIN and if Doug will pick her. AGAIN. Hero rating: 9/10

- Tom "The Fireman" Westman* - He's a fireman, which obviously adds to his hero persona. He's an older contestant, but a huge badass who carried his team almost the whole way. But in the end I didn't like him because he guilt-tripped the hell out of Ian the Dolphin Trainer, which tarnished his victory. Hero rating: 7.5/10

- Cirie "Devious Nurse" Fields - I'm so happy Cirie is back. She's a silent hero, laying low, plotting everyone's demise, but doing it so cheerfully that no one ever suspects her. Hero rating: 7.5/10

- Colby "The Cowboy" Donaldson - This guy introduced the coattail riders as winners strategy, being so heroic as to take sweet Tina with him to the final 2. I'd be pleased to see the same dominance he showed in Australia, but hopefully with less weakness for teh ladies. Hero rating: 7/10

- James "Gravedigger" Clement - James has everything heroic going for him. He's strong, good intentioned, and - as all great heroes do - has made big mistakes, e.g. not playing the hidden immunity idol. Hero rating: 8/10

- JT "Sweet Country Boy" Thomas* - This is one of Pickett's ponies who's so loveable as to make it impossible for people to vote him out. A southern drawl and great smile is as good as a hidden immunity idol (although both is better). Hero rating: 6.5/10

- Rupert "All Heart" Boneham** - What makes a hero a hero? All I know is that I adore Rupert, even though he doesn't always have nice things to say about other people and has a tendency towards bossiness. At the same time though this guy gives 130% on every challenge, and tries his damnedest to win. Hero rating: 10/10

- Sugar "The Weeper" Smith - Sugar annoyed the hell out of everyone in her season, but won the hearts of viewers around the nation. Her greatest heroic effort was getting Bob into the final 3, and letting him win his season, but she really hadn't done much before then besides cry a lot. Hero rating: 4/10

- Stephenie "The Athlete" LaGrossa - Stephenie works really hard, and is probably one of the strongest women to perform on the show. Seems like a pessimist though, so I'm not sure how that will mesh with the lovey-dovey nature of a "heroes" tribe. Hero rating: 6.5/10

- Candice "Broke Down" Woodcock - Candice and Sugar both spent a lot of time on exile. But exile island does not a hero make. Her "heroics" included abandoning Yul, Ozzie & friends on her season, and then bawling like a baby when they sent her to exile. She is the reason I wish they had exile again, so we could see the sequel. Would she cry again? Dry heave with sorrow? Hero rating: 0.75/10

Things I think are worth noting - the Heroes tribe has a whopping 5 people who have already been on 2 different seasons of survivor (Amanda, Rupert, James, Stephenie, and Cirie). If their shelter has one leak I will be disappointed. They should have that sort of thing down by now. I must admit this is a good representation of my favorite players in the game. I think they can all qualify as "heroes" but they all have a manipulative, devious dark side as well. These are no n00blets. I'm excited to see how it turns out!

Disappointed they aren't on this team: Yau Man, Elizabeth Hasselbeck, Ian the Dolphin Trainer, Danni from Guatemala, Bowtie Bob

Early predictions for alliances:

Cirie+JT+Amanda+Tom

Rupert+Sugar+Stephenie+Candace

Villains:

- Courtney "Scary Thin" Yates - Courtney was so skinny on China I thought they'd have to evacuate her. Her "talking head" bits were also some of the meanest ever. She's probably the vice-president of the evil club. Villain rating: 9.5/10

- "Crazy" Coach Wade - This man's a nut. His antics are extremely entertaining, but I think he will discover that his is a lamb among wolves when it comes to the back-stabbing and strategizing on this tribe. Villain rating: 6/10

- Danielle "I don't know who you are" DiLorenzo - I actually remember every other person who will be on this show. Except for this Danielle character. Apparently she finished 2nd behind Aras in one of the most boring seasons of Survivor ever. Villain rating: ?/10

- Jerri "Original Bitch" Manthey - I don't even remember why everyone hates Jerri so much, just that we do. I think people saw her as the Deliliah to Colby's Sampson. Villain rating: 8/10

- Parvati "The Flirt" Shallow* - I'm so happy she's back, and of course she should be categorized as a villain, but she's really not that evil. She's very strategic and also happens to be good at flirting. Villain rating: 6.5/10

- "Bitter" Randy Bailey - Randy is a brilliant, horribly jaded human being. This is apparently what happens when a man goes without a girlfriend for his entire life. One of the most negative forces in the game. Villain rating: 9/10

- "Boston" Rob Mariano** - Boston Rob is a great plotter (overshadowed by Evil Russ though). Great at strategy, great at getting people to hate him throughout the game. Villain rating: 8.5/10

- "Evil" Russell Hantz - Hell yeah. That's all I have to say about that. Villain rating: 10/10

- Sandra "I'm not sure why they consider her a villain" Diaz-Twine* - I don't remember her doing anything particularly villainous on her season, particularly compared to Johnny Fairplay. She did hide some of their supplies when she thought she was going to be voted out, but she was also Rupert's ally - an obvious hero. Villain rating: 3/10

- Tyson "The Gay Mormon" Apostol - Tyson ran around naked a lot and played a crafty game. His "talking heads" were more snarky than mean. Villain rating: 6/10

The villains are a little less experienced - only 3 of them have been on 2 previous seasons (Parvati, Jerri, and Rob). I have fears that this team will be so excited to start back-stabbing each other that they won't focus on challenges and will focus instead on eating each other's still-beating hearts instead. It will be really interesting to see how many heads get clunked together before a leader emerges for this tribe. On the other hand though I think they could plow through the heroes come merge time.

Disappointed they aren't on this team: Johnny Fairplay, Dreamz, Natalie from Fans v. Favorites

Early predictions for enemies:

Jerri v. Parvati

Evil Russell v. Boston Rob v. Coach

Courtney v. Randy

* = won on a previous season

** = didn't win, but either won a fan favorite $1M, or married someone who won... both meaning they are basically winners, if not given the title.

Survivor Samoa - The End... the sweet sweet end

Without further ado -

Final Standings:
Fifth Place - Goody Two-Shoes (28 points):
1. Good Russell (5 pts)
2. Liz (3 pts)
3. Kelly (20 pts)

Fourth Place - Pizza Place (73 points):
1. John (28 pts)
2. Brett (42 pts)
3. Ashley (3 pts)

Third Place - Cutesiness (83 points):
1. Monica (22 pts)
2. Mick (29 pts)
3. Laura (32 pts)

Second Place - Dachui (101 points):
1. Jaison (29 pts)
2. Dave (22 pts)
3. Natalie (50 pts)

Winner - Evil 'Box (126 points):
1. Evil Russell (72 pts)
2. Erik (32 pts)
3. Shambo (22 pts)

For our pool there was no blind side at the end. But as with the rest of the season, the show finished with an oh-so-satisfying blind side. Dachui put in a valiant effort at the end, getting almost half their points from Natalie's win, but it just wasn't enough to overcome the immunity-idol machine that was Evil Russell.

This season we consciously decided that we wanted it to be possible for someone to win the show and not have that be the deciding factor in who would win overall. And it actually turned out to be true. Which is kind of ironic since Danielle was one of the biggest supporters of the change in point amounts. There has already been some discussion of changes in the point system for the next season (see my future blog for thoughts on how awesome that's going to be). Suggestions such as earning and losing points based on players' success at the auction certainly seem entertaining.

For the record, here are the total number of points LOST for sitting out challenges:

Pizza Place: -6 points total
John -4 pts
Brett -2 pts

Goody Two-Shoes: -8 points total
Good Russell -2 pts
Kelly -6 pts

Cutesiness: -10 points total
Monica -4 pts
Laura -6 pts

Dachui: -10 points total
Dave -8 pts
Natalie -2 pts

Evil 'Box: -13 points total
Evil Russell -5 pts (but that's because of an idol misplay)
Shambo -8 pts

The difference seems negligible in this case. If anything, we should be grateful for the negative points, because it helped hold the leaders in check, if just a little bit.


A more interesting topic, though, is the fact that Natalie, a coat tail rider in many peoples' opinions, beat one of the craftiest players in the game, Evil Russell. I watched with a large group of survivor fans, and I think that all of us were confident that if Evil Russ made it to the final 3 he'd beat everyone else easily. How wrong we were!

I know a lot of people are claiming that Evil Russ was more deserving of the win because he set up most of the blind sides that happened, and that Natalie wouldn't have gotten that far if it weren't for him. I disagree. We have no idea what Natalie would have done if Russell wasn't on her tribe. She adapted to her situation and chose a strategy that optimized her longevity in the game. (I guess that's obvious since she won.) Some people claim that riding coattails isn't a strategy, but from my count, it worked for 7 of the 19 winners in Survivor so far: Tina (Australia season 2), Vecepia (Marquesas, season 4), Jenna (Amazon, season 6), Amber (All-Stars, season 8), Chris (Vanuatu, season 9), Bob (Gabon, season 17), and now Natalie.

I think coattails is a valid strategy, but players need the right counterpart to make it work. Namely, the counterpart needs to piss off a lot of people, while the coattail rider needs to be sweet and gain friendships. That way they make the jury vote more on an emotional basis than a strategic basis. Which, in the end, is just as strategic as the strategist's game... just on a different level. It's a symbiotic relationship in a way - the strategist needs the coattail riders to get enough votes and protect them from other strategists voting them off, and the coattail riders need the strategist to take the spotlight and the fire when it comes their way.

I could go on about this, but I used up a good amount of time researching previous seasons, and now it's almost time for me to go home. I will add one thing that I was very wrong about. It felt like lately there was an advantage to coming into the merge with a minority... somehow the majority alliance seemed to keep cannibalizing themselves before dismantling the other tribe, thus giving them the advantage. So I looked into it, and so far as I can tell, this has only worked for 5 winners: Chris (Vanuatu, season 9), Danni (Guatemala, season 11), Yul (Cook Islands, season 13), J.T. (Tocantins, season 18), and now Natalie. So I was wrong about that... but it does seem to be a more recent trend, at least for now.

Final Individual Power Rankings: The Most Impressive Wins
1. Richard Hatch
2. Earl
3. Parvati
4. Yul
5. Amber
6. Tom
7. J.T.
8. Brian
9. Tina
10. Natalie
11. Danni
12. Todd
13. Sandra
14. Bob
15. Jenna
16. Ethan
17. Aras
18. Vecepia
19. Chris



p.s. Congrats Bag!

p.p.s. Excellent showing for the rooks, congrats for a strong 2nd place, Dachui!

p.p.p.s. I have no idea what the standings are now... can someone verify this for me? Number of wins: Michal (2), Doug (2), Bag (2), Tom (1)*, Alia (1), Dachui (0)

Reflections on Survivor Samoa...

Will have to wait. Sorry. I will try and have it posted by tomorrow afternoon.

Survivor Samoa - the end is near

A great season is coming to an end.

Current Standings:
Evil 'Box (90 pts):
1. Evil Russell (36 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
[3. Shambo (22 pts)]

Cutesiness (63 pts):
[1. Monica (22 pts)]
2. Mick (9 pts)
[3. Laura (32 pts)]

Pizza Place (57 points):
[1. John (28 pts)]
2. Brett (26 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Dachui (46 pts):
1. Jaison (19 pts)
[2. Dave (22 pts)]
3. Natalie (5 pts)

Goody Two-Shoes (28 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
[3. Kelly (20 pts)]

Power Rankings:
1. Evil 'Box: Evil Russell, and consequently, Evil Bag, have had a death grip on this game for the past month. There are ways that Bag won't win... but they are unlikely scenarios. If Russ doesn't make top 3 then someone else would win, but with the way the game's being played right now, I just don't see that happening.

2. Everyone else: Here are the possible points that can still be won:

• 1st place: 45 (+15 for sweep)
• 2nd place: 30
• 3rd place: 20 (+10 if makes the jury)
• Jury: 10
• Individual Reward challenge: 4
• Individual Immunity: 6

I don't want to call it a lock, but it appears that so long as Evil Russ makes top 3 he has won it... and no one seems to even be considering eliminating him before then. Here are the two "best chance" scenarios that I can see for anyone besides Evil 'Box to win:

1. Brett wins - if Brett sticks to his "plan" and wins the rest of the immunity challenges and ends up winning the game, Pizza Place would end up with 57+6+6+4+45=118 points. (I threw in a reward win too.) Let's say this happens, and the Foa Foas finally realize that they can't beat Evil Russ, and vote him out immediately (unlikely), then Bag would end up with 90+10=100 points. But if he gets through to top 3, I think he's definitely finishing ahead of any other Foa Foa in votes, which would give him 2nd place points of 30, thus giving him 120 points - just enough to beat Brett, who would have won everything else.

2. Dachui finishes 1 and 2 - if Dachui finishes 1&2, and Russ finishes 3rd, then Dachui would win (this doesn't count any reward/immunity points either team may earn). However, if Dachui even finishes 1&3, and Russ finishes 2nd, then Evil 'Box still wins.

Hopes for the finale:
1. I hope that the final tribal is between 2 people, not 3 - although that seems unlikely based on how many people are left, that the jury would have a even number, etc.

2. I hope that Evil Russ doesn't win. Which is weird because I've been rooting for him this whole time. But I would LOVE to see if his face if Even Dumber Blonde Girl ends up getting the best of him. It would be so priceless.

3. I hope that the entire pool will watch the finale together on Sunday.


Individual Power Rankings:
1. Evil Russell (1)
2. Jaison (4)
3. Brett (5)
4. Natalie (3)
5. Mick (2)
6. Shambo (6)

Survivor Samoa - the gap closes... a little

I was a little disappointed in this last episode because there was no blindside, and there certainly was an opportunity for it! It's the first non-blindside episode in a really long time, and I really missed that element.

I'm happy that Dave got sent home for three reasons: 1. he was disturbingly thin and probably needed a decent meal more than anyone else, 2. his performance has been disappointing for a few weeks now and I'd lost all hope that he was actually a good strategist, and 3. we got a chance to see his CRAZY hair when he came in as a jury member.

I appreciated that Monica tried to stir the pot a little bit, but she did it in all the wrong ways. She tried to bargain and deal with the exact person she should have been plotting against. Even so, at least she was daring enough to actually try something, unlike Dave. Although her suggestion that Shambo would win Galu votes on the jury was laughable. I do hope she lives up to her promise though of spreading seeds of poison throughout the other jury members to try and stop Russ from winning. I don't think she'll succeed, but I can't wait for Monica's to say at final tribal: "Raise your hand if you're a millionaire."

Current Standings:
Evil 'Box (72 pts):
1. Evil Russell (32 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
3. Shambo (8 pts)

Cutesiness (63 pts):
[1. Monica (22 pts)]
2. Mick (9 pts)
[3. Laura (32 pts)]

Pizza Place (51 points):
[1. John (28 pts)]
2. Brett (20 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Dachui (42 pts):

1. Jaison (15 pts)

[2. Dave (22 pts)]

3. Natalie (5 pts)

Goody Two-Shoes (28 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
[3. Kelly (20 pts)]

Power Rankings:
1. Evil 'Box: Bag's still sitting pretty. The only negative to last week's episode was that his team was the only one that didn't bring in any points (except mine, but that's nothing new). But Russell and Shambo are still going strong, and still have a healthy lead. Their relationship is completely ridiculous though. They remind me of Pinky & the Brain: one's an evil and conniving genius, and the other is stupid and says things that are absolutely ridiculous.

Russell: "Shambo, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"
Shambo: "I think so Russell, but I'm just not sure I can interpret the chickens' prophetic dreams now that they're dead."

2. Dachui: Dachui has lost a player, but it was their most useless one, so I still think all is well and good with them. More importantly, Natalie and Jaison are both threats when it comes to challenges, unlike Russell and Shambo who really suck at them (a topic I'd get into if I had more time). This means they should be able to close that points gap even more over the last two episodes (hopefully) to make them competitive with Evil 'Box. It's a long shot for sure, but I'm cheering you on, Dachui!

3. Cutesiness: Monica is gone... Moon's #1 pick. We watched the show together last night and when she was voted off, he admitted being happy to see her leave. He said that having her on his team was an embarrassment. I'd like to take this opportunity to go back in time and revisit some of his comments from the night of our picks. He asked me to post my list of players in the order I'd ranked them because he thought they were so ridiculous. I believe he said something along the lines of, "we need to have this on record so you can see how bad your picks are by the end of the season." Well, Moon, here are my top 5 picks: Jaison, Good Russell, Evil Russell, Liz, and Mick. 3 out of the 5 are still in the game (unfortunately the other 2 were my picks). And as I said in that blog: "Moon laughed at these rankings, but I think he'll be sorry he did that later... Only time will tell..."

4. Pizza Place: Brett - wow, he actually spoke, won a challenge, even did some strategizing! He IS real! I was starting to be concerned that he'd make final 3 just because no one ever voted him off because they forgot he was there. But he went and made himself worth noticing and now seems to be Evil Russ's primary target for the next vote. Sorry Doug.

5. Goody Two-Shoes: Dachui finally has more points than me. Sigh.

Individual Power Rankings:
1. Evil Russell (1)
2. Mick (5)
3. Natalie (3)
4. Jaison (2)
5. Brett (6)
6. Shambo (8)
7. Monica (7)
8. Dave (4)

Survivor Samoa

Last night's episode of Survivor was another good one. The blindsides keep on coming, and I hope they continue! It's been awhile since I've posted, so let's get right to the standings:

Evil 'Box (72 pts):
1. Evil Russell (32 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
3. Shambo (8 pts)

Cutesiness (53 pts):
1. Monica (12 pts)
2. Mick (9 pts)
[3. Laura (32 pts)]

Pizza Place (45 points):
[1. John (28 pts)]
2. Brett (14 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Goody Two-Shoes (28 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
[3. Kelly (20 pts)]

Dachui (26 pts):
1. Jaison (9 pts)
2. Dave (12 pts)
3. Natalie (5 pts)

Power Rankings:
1. Evil 'Box: Bag's team is running away with the game at this point. If Shambo doesn't make top 3 after the lunacy she showed last night I'd be surprised. I think the only way she doesn't make top 3 is if someone stupid took control of the game (e.g. Monica) and voted her out out of spite. Evil Russ's hold on the others is nearly complete. Previews for next week indicate that Jaison and Mick finally realize they need to take him out, but I don't think that either of them actually have the moves to outplay the master. We'll see though...

2. Dachui: This last episode was great for Dachui because not a lot of points were won, but they got a chunk of them! Plus, they're still sitting strong with 3 players despite a close call with Dave. Jaison is thinking and strategizing, which I really appreciate. But he's prone to inaction most of the time, which could cost him the game. Dave - well, Dave is turning into a huge disappointment for me. I'd really like to see this guy try and make some moves! But what I really want to know is, how did that chicken end up tasting? No one ever showed the results of the 2 hour boil! If any team can take down the Evil 'Box, it's this one. Dachui has enough players that they can hopefully start pulling in a lot of points, and even get one or two players into the top 3. I hope Natalie is one of them, she's really winning me over!

3. Cutesiness: Moon informed me last night that he's no longer rooting for his own team. Hurrah, welcome to the club! Monica and Mick are in my eyes basically the same player. They ride coat-tails, don't help a lot with the challenges or strategizing, and generally annoy me. I think that it is impossible that either of them could get enough votes to win - unless they were going up against each other.

4. Pizza Place: Doug's team is all but gone, with only the ghost, Brett, left. I honestly cannot remember a player more overlooked by the TV crews and the other players in the game than this guy. And he's lost what little alliance he may have had when John got voted out. While John may be some brainy rocket scientist, he actually turned out to be pretty dumb when dealing with other people. He was in a hugely vulnerable position and then went to Evil Russ trying to get Mick voted out! I know they made that deal before, but he should have realized that deals like that are made to be broken. It was like watching a sheep try to tell the wolf stalking it what to do.

5. Goody Two-Shoes: I'm STILL ahead of Dachui, lol.


The Future?
With only 8 people left, it's really getting crucial that the players start to strategize about who they are hoping to take to the finals with them. Who can beat who in jury votes? I think it's pretty clear at this point that Russell would beat everyone else. The only upset I could see was if Dave made the finals and the old Galu alliance outweighed the "outwitting, outlasting, outplaying" aspect of the vote.

If Russ doesn't make it to the final 3, I think the next most likely would be Jaison then Natalie. I think that Natalie would probably have the edge over Jaison initially if they went to the finals together, but that Jaison would win in the end because he seems like a better orator.

So if Russ, Jaison, or Natalie makes the final 3 I think they'd win, with Dark Horse Dave being the spoiler. If none of them do, which seems pretty unlikely, it would be more of a "who's not the absolute worst?" tribal council than anything else. Then the victory would probably go to whoever orchestrated the overthrow, although I could see Eric and Russell voting for Shambo out of spite.

Individual Power Rankings:
1. Evil Russell (1)
2. Jaison (2)
3. Natalie (5)
4. Dave (3)
5. Mick (4)
6. Brett (6)
7. Monica (8)
8. Shambo (9)
9. John (7)

Survivor Samoa - a mighty hit!

Wow. Just when you think it can't get any better, it does! This season has been really fun to watch, especially if you're like me and cheering for the old Foa Foa tribe. Evil Russ found his THIRD hidden immunity idol, but this amazing feat was overshadowed by the biggest drama of the episode - John switching his vote at tribal council. I'm not sure what this "numbers cruncher" guy was thinking... I guess that a 0% chance of being gone at that tribal was too tempting v. the 12.5% chance that would have resulted from pulling rocks out of a bag to see who would go home. I sympathize with this, but only because I've lost credit card roulette 100% of the time I've played it. Pulling things out of hats/bags has not been good to me. Maybe he has similar bad luck in that way, but in the long run this move will hurt him a lot. Since we're crunching numbers, I'd say that John has a 64% chance of being voted out in the next episode.

Here's how things stand...

Evil 'Box (72 pts):
1. Evil Russell (32 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
3. Shambo (8 pts)

Cutesiness (53 pts):
1. Monica (12 pts)
2. Mick (9 pts)
[3. Laura (32 pts)]

Pizza Place (35 points):
1. John (18 pts)
2. Brett (14 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Goody Two-Shoes (28 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
[3. Kelly (20 pts)]

Dachui (20 pts):
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (12 pts)
3. Natalie (5 pts)


... and here's how I rank us:

1. Evil 'Box: Evil Russell continues to impress. Moon, this sort of episode is exactly why Bag's team got moved back to the #1 spot last week. Besides having a comfortable lead in the scores right now, he has one of the most innovative players who's ever been on Survivor. Pretty much every week at this point Russ is bringing in as many points as a jury seat is worth. That's hard to beat. Obviously Russell's dominance makes him a huge threat to everyone else, and they'll be gunning for him. But he's as hard to take down as a Cape Buffalo, especially with the hidden immunity idol warming itself in his pocket.

2. Cutesiness: Losing Laura hurt a lot - this dreg was Moon's #1 point earner. But Mick really stepped up in this episode. We saw him wheel and deal with Monica, win an immunity challenge, basically he actually did something! Hopefully he can continue to maintain a low profile while bringing in some points for Moon. Monica is useless, especially now that Laura is gone. She has no one watching her back, and she brings in very few points. On the positive side, these negative attributes will probably help her get deep into the game, so she may end up pulling in 2nd or 3rd place points, which would be huge. But for the most part, the future of this team rests on Mick Dreamy's shoulders. We'll see if he can handle the pressure.

3. Dachui: Dachui is the only team that still has all 3 of its players, and this last episode probably helped this team the most, but I don't know if the rooks can overcome their massive point deficit. I'm excited to see how old Foa Foa will handle being in control of the game - I hope they do a better job than old Galu did! I'm pulling for you Dachui, but it's going to be a steep uphill battle. And I must add that I was disappointed in Dave this episode - I thought one of his greatest strengths was his adaptability and ability to make friends across lines - the gender line and the tribal lines. But he's not thinking enough. Him going along with Laura's ridiculous "let's vote for Russell and if he has the idol so be it" scheme was the dumbest thing he's done in this game.

4. Pizza Place: John made a bad play and I think he'll be voted out soon. He's an easy target now - both sides can consider him untrustworthy, and since he's also competitive in challenges it seems like a no-brainer to make him the next to go. Once he's gone, all Pizza has left is the ghost Brett. We saw a little more of him this episode, but I gotta say that I wasn't impressed by what I saw. This guy seems content with not thinking or playing the game. He hasn't tried to make any other alliances besides what was set up on Day 1, and that will hurt him in the long run, especially since his Day 1 alliance has crumbled.

5. Lil old me: Technically I'm out of the match, but I still have more points than Dachui. That's my positive thought of the day. But really Dachui, you gotta step up your game. That's just plain sad.


Individual Power Rankings:
1. Evil Russell (3)
2. Jaison (6)
3. Dave (1)
4. Mick (7)
5. Natalie (5)
6. Brett (8)
7. John (4)
8. Monica (9)
9. Shambo (10)
10. Laura (2)

Survivor Samoa - Ya Ballin'

I think last night's episode can officially be called a major comeback for team Evil Box. Bag looked to be for sure losing his only remaining competitor (Shambo cannot be considered competitive by anyone's standards, I don't think), when Russ managed to find another hidden immunity idol, play it to save his butt, and give the old Foa Foa tribe a fighting chance at this game. Instead of practically going out, Bag netted a whopping 24 points in one episode - the most one team has gotten so far - and launched himself back to the top of the rankings. Will Russ find yet another hidden immunity idol and boost Bag's numbers even more? Only time will tell.

Some points of interest from tribal council - I think Erik now hates everyone on his former tribe... except maybe Shambo. Last week's blind side may be fateful in the end if the final 2 end up being Foa Foa v. Galu. Also Jeff Probst officially announced that another immunity idol was out there - stating the obvious, but apparently everyone else needed to hear it from an authority figure to finally get off their butts and actually look for it.

The way things stand right now it's Dave, John, Brett, Laura, and Monica v. Evil Russ, Natalie, Jaison, Mick, and Shambo. 5 v. 5. It may be that Shambo switches back to her original tribe - she's so unpredictable that I could see this happen. But otherwise there's going to be a battle royale for control of this game. I myself am cheering for old Foa Foa, but even if they lose it will be highly entertaining. My early prediction on the final 3 is Dave, Shambo, Monica if Galu wins, or Jaison, Natalie, Shambo if Foa Foa wins.

Here's how things stand so far:

Evil 'Box (58 points):
1. Evil Russell (18 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
3. Shambo (8 pts)

Cutesiness (33 pts):
1. Monica (12 pts)
2. Mick (3 pts)
3. Laura (18 pts)

Pizza Place (31 points):
1. John (18 pts)
2. Brett (10 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Goody Two-Shoes (28 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
[3. Kelly (20 pts)]

Dachui (12 pts):
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (8 pts)
3. Natalie (1 pts)

Team Power Rankings - I had to pause when reflecting on my power rankings, because people's rank keeps shifting so dramatically that I was starting to think I'm not very good at this. But in reality these swings are bound to happen. This isn't football, where the teams are pretty much the same the whole season. Alliances are made and broken, players' stocks can rise and fall at the drop of a hat. It's hard to judge how much worth a player will have long-term. Which, really, is why the survivor pool is so much fun.

1. Evil 'Box: Welcome back to the leader board Evil 'Box! Your dominating performance proved that even when you're down, you're never out. Evil Russ is quickly becoming one of my favorite players ever. He's devious, smart, and is willing to do whatever it takes to win. I suspect that he threw the reward challenge to give him time alone at camp to find the idol. 'Box's lead is so great right now that it will be very hard to overcome. Certainly two quick knock-outs would probably do the trick, but Shambo's ridiculousness may have moved her into a final 3 spot. Since no jury member would ever vote for her, she'd be a great partner for a wilier player to take with him/her to the end.

2. Cutesiness: There is going to be a war next week between Laura and Russell. I honestly have no idea who will come out on top, but if it is Laura, Team Cutesiness will be a force to be reckoned with even though Mick is a waste of space. He's a doctor and couldn't do a simple "match the shape to the hole" game. This is a game that 2-year olds play on a regular basis, come on man! But somehow he's avoiding unwanted attention. Maybe because he lays around all day and is useless at challenges. He's certainly lasting longer than I thought he would.

3. Pizza Place: John is definitely thinking and strategizing, but he's not doing anything about it. He tells everyone that Russell could easily have the idol, Dave says no and he drops it. His wussiness may cost old Galu the game. John dodged a big bullet this episode too - with Foa Foa essentially having a free pass, I was sure they'd opt for John. And I'm becoming more and more convinced that Brett is actually a figment of all our imaginations - does anyone remember the last time he had a conversation with another player? I don't. When the old Galu met to discuss who would be voted out next, Brett was not there. If that doesn't spell expendable I don't know what does.

4. Dachui: Dachui's reign at the top of the rankings was sadly short-lived. I still think that Dave is the most dangerous player in this game, but at this point Dachui is averaging a pitiful 2 points per episode. They are 46 points behind the leader, Evil 'Box. I'm afraid this deficit is too much to overcome. If Dachui is to win, they have to actually start winning - both challenges and ultimately the game. Laying low is all well and good, but it won't get Dachui the victory.

5. Goody Two-Shoes: So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, good night! My sadness over being first out in this competition was very short-lived. Now I am no longer conflicted; I can cheer for Evil Russ to my heart's content! Sadly this was exactly the sort of end I saw coming for Kelly - her lack of being a threat became a threat, but only because the main target was safe. I honestly think this was a bad play by Foa Foa, but what do I know? I thought Liz was a good pick. This does reveal a somewhat interesting trend though - I won last season and went out first this season. And two seasons ago Doug won and went out early the next season as well. Curse of the winners perhaps? We'll have to see if this trend continues.

6. Yasmin: Yas was the dreg that no one picked and was voted out the first episode after the pool started. I'm putting her in the standings to make myself feel a little better.

Individual Power Rankings: (I think I should clarify that these power rankings are based on their likelihood to win, not just go far in the game.)
1. Dave (1)
2. Laura (5)
3. Evil Russell (10)
4. John (3)
5. Natalie (4)
6. Jaison (7)
7. Mick (9)
8. Brett (6)
9. Monica (8)
10. Shambo (11)
11. Kelly (2)

Survivor Samoa - Yeehaw!

Yes!! I was hoping that things would be shaken up, and indeed they have! The merge was not kind to Evil Box, who'd been leading the whole season so far, much to my enjoyment. Of particular note: Evil Russell actually has negative points now due to his misplay of the hidden idol. Erik has scored more than twice as many points as anyone else (thanks to a 10 point boost for making the jury), but is now incapable of scoring any more. At this point, Bag's active players' points total less than mine... but since everyone from now on is guaranteed at least a 10 point boost for making the jury, this isn't much for me to brag about. Still, I'll take what I can :).

A couple of stand-out performances from Jaison and Natalie: first, for being able to see exactly what was going on, and second, for actually doing something about it. I was also pleased to see that the purple tribe is very willing to stab each other in the back, which should make for an entertaining rest of the season!

I hope Survivor will have a few more "double immunity" challenges in the future - my disappointment with the female lack of athleticism and basic softball ability notwithstanding, this could really mix up the dynamics of the post-merge game. I used to think that maybe the challenges were harder than they looked considering some of the poor performances by the women - but after the last episode I realized that the women that are brought on this show are just wusses, and that pretty much all the women I am friends with would do better than most of the ones on the show right now. And I think you should only be allowed to wear knee-high socks to a t-ball challenge if you can actually hit the ball. False advertising, IMO by both Monica and Kelly.

On to the standings:

Evil Box (34 points):
1. Evil Russell (-2 pts)
[2. Erik (32 pts)]
3. Shambo (4 pts)

Pizza Place (27 points):
1. John (14 pts)
2. Brett (10 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Cutesiness (23 pts):
1. Monica (8 pts)
2. Mick (3 pts)
3. Laura (12 pts)

Goody Two-Shoes (14 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
3. Kelly (6 pts)

Dachui (10 pts):
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (4 pts)
3. Natalie (3 pts)

Team Power Rankings: Everything has been mixed up now! Last night was a great equalizer and now I'm not really sure how things stand. But I'll organize as best I can...

1. Dachui: That's right, I now consider The Rooks to be the front-runners in this game. Jaison still has a target on his back, but I was impressed by Dave and Natalie's ability to adapt in the game. They aren't leaders, but that's a good thing in Survivor. They'll lay low, let a bunch of other people get kicked out, and then all of a sudden it's the final 4 and everyone's wondering how they got there. Besides which, Dachui actually still has all its players in the game - a huge advantage. They only have 10 pts right now, but the stakes just got a lot higher, and they could make up their deficit in just a couple of episodes.

2. Pizza Place: Seriously, who is this Brett guy? I like that John got a little more TV time, but Brett is noticeably absent - could he be the most boring man in the world? I still don't expect either of these two to win, but even without Erik they're still largely in control of the game, and have enough brains and brawn to win a lot immunity challenges.

3. Cutesiness: Welcome to not-the-bottom, Moon! I actually struggled with who should be ranked higher, Pizza or Cute, but in the end settled on placing Cutesy third. Cutesy's strengths are that there are 3 of them, and that hopefully the women's physical weakness will leave them unnoticed for a few episodes. Cutesy's weakness is that all of the players' names keep being brought up right before tribal anyways. Well, not Mick's yet, but I think it will be soon. Keep clawing Moon!

4. Evil Box: Evil Box took a couple of HUGE hits last night - two of Bag's players had immunity idols, and now one has been voted out and the other misplayed his. Evil Russ basically defanged himself last night. Really, the hidden immunity idol is actually more powerful when it has the potential to be played, rather than when it actually is played. Evil Russell had one trump card and he played it too early. Having an immunity idol means you need to play a finesse game (dorky bridge analogies are running through my head) and Russell is not a finesse player. Shambo - the only player besides Erik to vote for Jaison - was really dependent on Erik, and completely disconnected from everyone. If the women start to become more powerful, I think Monica and Laura's dislike of her will get her voted out quickly. I'm not counting this team out though, even though previews for the next episode look dire for Evil Russell. If anyone can squeak out of a bad situation, it's Evil Russ!

Last. Goody Two-Shoes: Well, I'm pleased to see that Kelly has a brain and is willing to make moves as well. I'm also really starting to love her hair. Could mini-dreds be a good look for me too? Go Kelly!

Individual Power Rankings:
1. Dave (3)
2. Kelly (8)
3. John (5)
4. Natalie (6)
5. Laura (7)
6. Brett (4)
7. Jaison (11)
8. Monica (12)
9. Mick (10)
10. Evil Russell (2)
11. Shambo (9)
12. Erik (1)

Survivor Samoa - the trauma continues

This season of Survivor started off so promisingly, but I feel like it's starting to peter out a little bit. Not a lot has changed over the past several episodes. Yellow tribe keeps saying that they're just getting unlucky, purple tribe keeps crushing them, and one-by-one the women that Evil Russell doesn't like keep getting voted out. This week's victim was my own Liz, whose only chance lay in a merge that didn't come in time to save her.

Next week's merge I hope will reinvigorate the show. I think there is potential for a lot of scheming and drama once the merge happens, but it will only happen if Evil Russell makes a move. He seems like the only one smart enough to do any scheming at all right now. Eric is a runner-up in this category, but he hasn't been tested enough yet to see if he really got the skillz. But I would love nothing more than to see a yellow tribe + purple ladies overthrow of the purple guys + Shambo. It's probably unlikely to happen, but if there's ever a chance to knock those guys off their throne, this is it.

Evil Box (29 points):
1. Evil Russell (3 pts)
2. Erik (22 pts)
3. Shambo (4 pts)

Pizza Place (21 points):
1. John (8 pts)
2. Brett (10 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Cutesiness (17 pts):
1. Monica (8 pts)
2. Mick (3 pts)
3. Laura (6 pts)

Goody Two-Shoes (14 pts):
[1. Good Russell (5 pts)]
[2. Liz (3 pts)]
3. Kelly (6 pts)

Dachui (10 pts):
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (4 pts)
3. Natalie (3 pts)


Here's how I rank us:

1. Evil Box - If anyone has a chance to win on the sad little yellow tribe, it's Evil Russell. Shambo doesn't know it but she's now a part of the most powerful alliance currently in the game. Eric may prove to be the canniest player this season. They will all rack up points in the individual immunity challenges. Nuff said.

2. Pizza Place - John and Brett seem to be Eric's lackeys. They could easily go deep, but I don't think Eric will risk going against them in the finals. They need to throw a coup before it comes down to that, but will either have the wherewithal to think of it? They'll probably win a lot of the upcoming individual challenges; hopefully a streak of those will put them in contention with Evil Box and keep things interesting!

3. Dachui - I would think that Jaison is more likely to bring in points with the upcoming merge what with his size and strength, but he's completely given up. Dave might take down a few, but Natalie probably won't. Since they're already behind in the points, I think it will be very hard for them to come back and win this game. All their hopes rest on Action "He got clotheslined... by the clothesline!" Dave, who's still a contender. He's in a unique position of being a part of the strongest alliance without being a physical threat, which I think will serve him well now that they've merged. The biggest negative is that the other people on this team are from the yellow tribe, so even if he makes it to the finals, Dachui may be so far behind in other points that even a win wouldn't be enough for them to take down the pool.


4. Cutesiness - Moon's picks have risen in my opinion, though not enough to move up any spots in the rankings. I think his team will greatly benefit from the upcoming merge. I don't think they'll win many individual challenges, but they might last longer than I predicted earlier.

5. Goody Two-Shoes - my team has crumbled. I'm down to my dreg, a scrawny woman who is unlikely to win many individual challenges. I hope for a lot of team challenges where she's paired with Eric and Russell. For me to have a chance at winning this I need her to win the whole thing, I need her to win challenges along the way, and I need the other finalists to be from low-point teams. I'm basically giving myself a 0.73% chance to win the whole thing, and a 38% chance that I'll be out completely within the next 3 weeks. Go Kelly!!

Individual power Rankings (parenthesis indicate last week's rank):
1. Eric (1)
2. Evil Russell (3)
3. Dave (2)
4. Brett (6)
5. John (4)
6. Natalie (11)
7. Laura (7)
8. Kelly (5)
9. Shambo (10)
10. Mick (9)
11. Jaison (8)
12. Monica (13)
13. Liz (12)

Survivor Samoa - it continues....

Sorry for my delinquency, but here's an update, after 2 more episodes, on our standings:

Team Evil 'Box (aka Bag): 21 points
1. Evil/Fat Russell (3 pts)
2. Erik (17 pts)
3. Shambo (1 pts)

Team Pizza Place (aka Doug): 13 points
1. John (5 pts)
2. Brett (5 pts)
[3. Ashley (3 pts)]

Team Goody Two-Shoes (aka me!): 11 points
[1. Good/Black Russell (5 pts)]
2. Liz (3 pts)
3. Kelly (3 pts)

Team Cutesiness (aka Moon): 11 points
1. Monica (5 pts)
2. Mick (3 pts)
3. Laura (3 pts)

Team Dachui (aka Richey and Danielle): 7 points
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (1 pts)
3. Natalie (3 pts)

The points haven't changed all that much because - for the FIRST time in Survivor Pool HISTORY - no one actually won any points last episode. But some people did LOSE points for sitting out a challenge that no one won. It was a fascinating episode where no team won immunity or reward challenges, and it looked like 3 people were going to get kicked out... but in the end, only my #1 pick passed out of the show. Doug lost his dreg in the episode before, so we are both down to 2 players, while everyone else still has 3. On to the power rankings:

1. Evil 'Box: This team can do no wrong. Even when they do things wrong, it somehow works out. Take Shambo: this woman has lost their fishing gear, a chicken, annoys the hell out of everyone, and it's saving her from elimination! Crafty Eric, also on the team, has noticed her uselessness, and subsequent useFULness, and is turning what looked to be Bag's greatest weakness into a dark horse to go deep. And with Eric and Evil Russ both carrying hidden immunity idols, it looks like they're going nowhere soon.

I think that finally Russell is starting to realize that his evilness was played prematurely. If he'd saved all his early-game shenanigans for a merge (burning socks, dumping out water) I'd declare him an Evil Genius. Instead, he put his team behind before the game even started. If he doesn't win, it's his own fault, because I think if he'd had any restraint at all he could've taken this thing.

2. Pizza Place: Even with losing a player this team is still fairly secure. John has shown that he can indeed strategize, although I still doubt his first-round pick quality. I still have no idea who Brett is, but he seems safe for now at least. A merge could shake things up a little for them, because I have a feeling the purple tribe will not hold strong for long after a merge. But until that alliance crumbles, these two will do a good job racking up points for Doug. My only qualm is that these two players are too similar; if one of them gets voted out, I have a feeling the other will go shortly after. Doug needs a diversified portfolio, IMO. And losing a player hurts, of course, although since it was only Ashley, the hit was not too painful.

3. Dachui: Unfortunately, I wouldn't qualify this team as strong, merely the best of the bad teams. Jaison and Natalie could be strong contenders, I think, but they're on the losing tribe. They don't have numbers, and Jaison will have a huge target on his back once they merge. Natalie depends almost entirely on Evil Russ to get far, and if he sees a better opportunity come along, that guy will drop her fast. Dave is good though - I think he could do very well in this game. But I want to see more from him before I get too enthusiastic.

4. Cutesiness: Moon and I both breathed easier after Jeff announced that there'd be no votes at tribal, because we both had candidates on the chopping block. Monica, Moon's #1 pick, has proven to be a bad competitor in challenges and too obvious in her alliances. Even if there is a merge next week I feel like the purple tribe could vote her out first anyways, just to finish their plotting from last week. But I certainly don't think she has a chance if they don't merge, so she's likely screwed either way. Mick will be the obvious first target once there's a merge, and he has no idol like Evil Russ to protect him. Which leaves Moon with Laura. Laura is to Moon what Kelly is to me - a wish and a prayer. But if anyone wants to make bets, I'd put my money on our dregs lasting the longest on both our teams.

Last. Goody Two-Shoes: I lost my #1 pick, Good Russell, to a medical evacuation. That sucks a lot, and SERIOUSLY hurts my chances of winning this season. I wasn't counting on Russell to win the whole thing, but I was counting on him to win me SOME points! Now I have Liz and Kelly, who are both good players, but Liz is painting a huge target on her back first by calling out Evil Russell, and then saying dumb things like "our tribe needs the guys, so it'll be either me or Natalie" instead of arguing her case! What Liz should be plugging is something more like this: we need strong women on our tribe because most challenges pit guys against guys and girls against girls. If Natalie is your only female you're screwed! Not only would this save her ass, but it's TRUE. And the fact that she can't see that is making me lose respect, not only for her, but for their whole tribe. Liz needs a merge more than anyone else in the game. I hope we get one soon! But Kelly, my dreg, is my only real hope. I actually do like her chances more than any other woman left in the game. So I'm going to try and stay optimistic for now.


I'm going to keep doing individual power rankings too, just for fun:

1. Eric
2. Dave
3. Evil Russell
4. John
5. Kelly
6. Brett
7. Laura
8. Jaison
9. Mick
10. Shambo
11. Natalie
12. Liz
13. Monica

RE: Notes

I just got a shout out on Moon's blog which is making me smile :). Although still no cred for the "Old Whitey" moniker. WTF mate?

Survivor blog will be coming soon, but I keep leaving my spreadsheet at home. Also due: wedding blog and hit & run blog. Those will undoubtedly take forever to post, sorry for anyone who cares.

Survivor Samoa - it starts....

I know the season's already 4 episodes in, but I don't feel like Survivor really starts until the pool has begun! Last night marked what I consider to be one of the most serious, competitive, and well-organized pools we've done so far, which to mean also means the most fun. I spent a large part of last night sitting at a table in Murphy's with 5 other competitors, and 2 semi-supporters working through the rules, agonizing over picks, and taking copious notes. It's how I imagine a fantasy football draft must go.

The most notable change to this season is that team Dachui, elimated from last season's competition because of numerous absences, actually made the draft this time around. Good luck to you, rooks!


RULES:

We've made some small adjustments to last season's rules, which I've posted here:

45 points (+15 for sweep) - 1st place
30 points - 2nd place
20 points (+10 if makes jury) - 3rd place
10 points - Jury
2 points - Wins a team reward challenge
3 points - Wins a team immunity challenge
4 points - Wins an individual reward challenge
1 points - Invited to share a reward challenge
6 points - Wins individual immunity challenge
10 points - Finds the hidden immunity idol
+10/-5 points - Plays hidden immunity idol at tribal council (+ 10 for successful, -5 if it was played unnecessarily)
-10 - Plays a fake immunity idol
-2 - Sits out a challenge

The first place prize was downgraded just a bit, while most of the early-game points were bulked up. I think this was a good decision as it increases the chances of someone winning the pool, even if their pick doesn't win the competition. However, it's still highly likely that whoever's pick wins Survivor, will win the pool too. Hopefully the scoring will make it as exciting as I think it will!


PICKS/CURRENT STANDINGS:

Team Evil 'Box (aka Bag): 15 points
1. Evil/Fat Russell (3 pts)
2. Erik (12 pts)
3. Shambo (0 pts)

Team Missing a Pizza Place (aka Doug): 7 points
1. John (2 pts)
2. Brett (2 pts)
3. Ashley (3 pts)

Team Dachui (aka Richey and Danielle): 6 points
1. Jaison (3 pts)
2. Dave (0 pts)
3. Natalie (3 pts)

Team Goody Two-Shoes (aka me!): 5 points
1. Good/Black Russell (0 pts)
2. Liz (3 pts)
3. Kelly (2 pts)

Team Cutesiness (aka Moon): 5 points
1. Monica (2 pts)
2. Mick (3 pts)
3. Laura (0 pts)


ANALYSIS (in order of the strength of teams):

1. Evil 'Box: Bag's team has already started with a huge leg up: two of his players have hidden immunity idols. Besides getting bonus points for that, it also makes his team a lot more powerful and dangerous. Both guys found them without having seen any clues, which speaks highly of their innovation and the fact that they're playing the game 24/7. Shambo could go out next week, but she could also be one of the key players in the game since she has a foot in both camps right now. Will she win? Probably not, but as a dreg, she has the potential to bring in a lot of points. And if she doesn't, no big loss.

2. Dachui: Dachui had a very scary episode to watch after the picks. Jaison looked like a quitter, Dave looked like he was insane, and Natalie looked really dumb. But they all pulled through and no one got the boot. I think that if anyone has a chance to win without having picked the actual winner, this is the team. Natalie somehow worked her way into an unstable, but potentially huge alliance. Jaison is a huge threat if he can get his head back in the game, and Dave is canny, if weird. They all have the potential for very deep runs in this game.

3. Goody Two-Shoes: I have some solid players, but none of them are real stand-outs. I picked Liz because I thought that she was good at allying herself with people while still laying low, and was disheartened by previews of next week's episode (please don't piss off Russell!) because it looks like she loses her composure. Good Russell right now is sitting very pretty, but he also needs to work on laying low. Finally, Kelly, my dreggery, actually seems like she could be really cool. I had no idea who she was when I picked her, but I thought she did well in this last episode. It seems like she has a good feel for the game. Fingers crossed that my dreg won't be the one carrying my whole team!

4. Missing a Pizza Place: Maybe this team doesn't deserve to be 2nd to last, but I really know nothing about these players, and I think that's a bad sign. Shows like this tend to at least introduce you to the finalists at the beginning, IMO, so if 4 episodes in I still don't know who they are, it doesn't bode well. And cameo sightings of Brett don't count.

5. Cutesiness: Moon, this is nothing personal, but I think your team sucks. I'm not singling you out. I'm singling out Monica, Mick, and Laura. Monica, Moon's #1 pick almost got voted out last night, which usually doesn't bode well for a team. Mick will be an easy target for the majority tribe, if they merge and the yellow team is still down players. And Laura could be good, but who really knows yet?

Overall there were a LOT of players we know practically nothing about, which made this season's draft very interesting. I think there's a lot of parity in the teams this year, and honestly whoever wins this season will have gotten lucky along the way. Should be really fun!!


Finally, as a sort of post-script (dedicated to Moon), I'm posting my "power rankings" on how I rated the players leading into the draft.

Top Tier:
Jaison
Good Russell
Evil Russell
Liz
Mick

Middle of the Pack:
Erik
Brett
Monica
Laura
Kelly
Natalie
Shambo

Hope I Don't Get:
Ashley
David
John
Yasmin

Moon laughed at these rankings, but I think he'll be sorry he did that later (except maybe Dave; that guy impressed me last night). Only time will tell...

The wedding is less than 2 weeks away. My parents arrive in 5 days. The sound of inevitability is constantly in the back of my head. It sounds like Bag saying "Eeeeeeeee!"

(p.s. I am thrilled to get married and have a wedding and spend the rest of my life with the man I love. It's the planning of it that causes the stress!)

You haven't heard from me because....

I (sort of) got a promotion! I've never been busier or happier at my job than I am right now. It's pretty awesome. Unfortunately the promotion is supposed to be only temporary because at this point they can't accompany my promotion with an increase in pay (thus the naming of it, a Dougmotion). But it is encouraging that it happened at all, and it's also encouraging that I'm enjoying my new responsibilities so much!

That's all for now... I no longer seem to have time for blog posts, what w/ work and the wedding less than 3 weeks away!

Nappy's Last Chance

Nappy, this is a public post directed to you - if you ever change the website your blog is on again, I will remove you from my list on my blogsite. I have no problem with you changing your outlook on life, changing gears in both poker and life goals. I do have a problem with spending 3 minutes trying to figure out how to update my blog. Yes, 3 minutes is enough to push me over the edge. This would be incredibly damaging to you, as it would mean losing 1/11th of your readership.

You have been forewarned.

Galileo

Listening to Galileo by the Indigo Girls right now. (I prefer the Abby-a capella group's better, but I don't have an mp3 of it anymore :(.) It made me start thinking about reincarnation. I feel like I've got it pretty good right now, so my previous lives must have done a damn good job of "living right." But what if I'm messing it up? Am I just sitting back and taking it easy instead of taking that crucial next step to get me to Paradise? I imagine my soul living life after life, alternating between working my ass off to be a good person, then sitting on my heels, condemning myself to another grindy existence.

If I actually believed in any of this stuff I might get motivated to do more... but instead I'm just going to appreciate what I have and enjoy my life. What can I say? Current me's just a little too lazy :).

Holy bananas!

George RR Martin just posted on his blog that they've got Sean Bean cast as Eddard Stark for HBO's Game of Thrones pilot! Check it out here: http://grrm.livejournal.com/. I'm also really excited about their cast for King Robert (this guy's got "loud and drunk" written all over him and I thought he was great in A Knight's Tale) and for their choice of an "intense" unknown for Jon Snow. But getting Sean Bean attached to this project makes it feel like it's got a whole lot more weight and authenticity behind it now. (Peter Dinklage was previously cast as Tyrion... also exciting, but it's old news.) I can't wait to see who's announced next!

Money for Nothing

A few weeks ago Bag IMed me to see if I wanted to play in a softball game on Saturday. I told him I couldn’t because I was playing in some weekly freerolls. A scoffing Bag wrote, “softball >>>>>>>> freerolls” to which I replied, “not if you win.” Fast forward to last week, another Saturday where I found myself playing a few freerolls, and mercifully untempted by softball. Freerolls, more than any other tourney (that I play, i.e. turbos don’t count), are true donkaments. But I’ve been reading Nappy’s blog a lot lately and his crasian aggro style has been rubbing off on me, which means I’m currently playing a style ideally suited to a donkament freeroll. I played a lot of hands, called light, and put people on a weaker range than I normally would.

About 1,600 people played in the $75k freeroll and 288 made the money. With about 200 people left I felt like I was in complete control of the tournament. I told myself I would at least get top 18. I’d been ridiculously aggressive, raising and then calling all ins with hands like T8s, and even a 43s once, both of which I was delighted to win.

Soon after the money, I got moved to a new table, where I was pleased to be sitting directly to the left of the table’s big stack, Rhubarb. This guy was pretty open about the fact that he was robbing people blind. He probably raised about half the pots, and usually took it down. But when he got reraised he usually folded quickly, not getting into any pissing contests with the upstarts. This was an ideal situation for me because I was able to resteal from him most of the time, bringing in a hefty amount of chips but not having to risk mine very often. Unfortunately, when that table broke I got moved to a new one where the guy to my right, EasyY, was very good and started to knock large chunks out of my sizeable stack. He was moved to the new table in time to watch me raise one hand and take it uncontested, then double up in a 250k pot with JJ against AK the very next hand (3 for 3 on my flips). Two hands later I have 77 UTG and raise it to 12.5k with blinds at 2.5/5k. He reraised from the button to 40k and I flatcall. The board came 995 and he bet 44k into an 88k pot. I figured this was a good spot for me so I reraised to 109k, and he instantly went all in. With 97k left behind, I made a very difficult fold, but good fold all the same. I’m sure I wouldn’t be posting this blog if I hadn’t. Two hands later I get JJ in the SB, and after an EP limp EasyY raises 3x. I really should have seen that one coming, but I was pissed off from our previous hand and shipped it for 100k. EasyY with the obvious rockets called immediately, but BINK! a beautiful jack on the river doubled me up! (Sorry Nappy, but JJ is my new favorite hand. I’m probably the one sucking out on you constantly.)

Suddenly I’m there. I’d made top 18 and I paused for a moment of celebration because I’d achieved my goal and then some! I was sitting pretty at 5th in chips, and from there I cruised my way easily into the final table.

I wasn’t too happy with where I was sitting, as Rhubarb was three seats to my left. However, while still active I’ve still got a pretty good read on him. Easy_Y is there too, sitting two to my left. The two shortest stacks are sitting to my right, one of whom had been folding to me all through the last table. Of the remaining final 9, a guy named Freako8 had 500k, Rhubarb and I each had 350k, and 4 guys had around 250k.

The very first hand I get AK in the SB. Rhubarb, as predictable as pie raised to 18k w/ blinds at 3.5k/7k, and Freako called. I reraised to 69k, and they both folded. Good start! Rhubarb knocks out the smallest stack 4 hands in, and after that everyone’s stacks are so close it’s a battle to the end. With 7 left, 5 of us are right around 400k, EasyY was up to 600k, and one shorty had 150k. I continued my bludgeoner style and started shtealing my way up to a more dominating stack. I was up to 550k when I called a small-stack’s all in with AJo, running up against their QQ and bumping me down to 350k. I tightened up for a couple of orbits, when I played this hand:

With 6 left it folded to me in the hijack and I raised it to 29k w/ blinds at 6/12k with Jd5d. The player to my left flat called, and the board came 563 with two clubs (I had no clubs). I bet out 52k and he called. The turn was a non-club deuce, and I checked. He bet into me for a 90k and I considered my options. If he’d had a 4 I thought he would’ve checked, so I immediately discounted that option. He could’ve had a pocket pair, but if that were the case he probably would’ve raised the flop. Plus, with such a junk board it didn’t look like I’d hit anything, so he could be betting with crap just because he thought I didn’t have anything. So I shoved all in. He used up almost his entire timebank before calling with JcTc. No club or T, and I was up to 660k.

Down to 5: I was still in the middle of texting Wolf news of my double up when I woke up with AKo on the button. I raised to 29k (blinds still 6/12k) and it folded to Rhubarb in the BB with 600k who reraised to 51k. I wasn’t surprised; I’d been stealing a lot and was pleased to see him defending since I held a monster. I rereraised to $139k, and after tanking he pushed all in. I thought I was in a coinflip, but then he showed AdQd! In my mind I pictured his cheeks reddening in embarrassment as his cards were revealed. But AK < AQ was proven yet again when he hit a flush, and I was crippled down to 47k. Rhubarb now had 1.2M from the biggest pot—and biggest suckout-- of the entire tournament. I was confident that I would wind up in 5th place.

I folded until my BB where I got 82o. Rhubarb, reveling in his newfound wealth, raised to 30k and I glumly went all in for my pittance of 43k. He had AK, but I spiked a 2 and doubled up to 100k. The very next hand I woke up with aces and cheered. Rhubarb continued his raising ways and when I re-shoved he called with QJo. I held and suddenly I was back in the game with 210k. After that it was a grind as the nit to my right slowly got blinded out of the tourney. Then the other short-stack tight player at the table went into panic mode and started raising like crazy. EasyY and Rhubarb basically sat back and watched us try and knock each other out. In the end though it was Rhubarb who knocked out the other guy, and we reached final three with Rhubarb at 1.3M, EasyY at 800k and me with a small but feisty 300k stack.

We ended up making a deal, and I walked away with $8,000. It’s the biggest score I’ve ever made, and it comes from a tournament in which I invested $0 dollars and only 6 hours of time.